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Oxford Economics: Victory of Armenia’s ruling party could facilitate agreements with Azerbaijan

20 February 2026 11:19 (UTC +04:00)

"Oxford Economics expects the incumbent Civil Contract to win the Armenian parliamentary elections in June," Oxford Economics, an international economic research center based in the United Kingdom, said in its forecast, APA-Economics reports.

"A victory would likely clear the way for a referendum to remove references to Karabakh from the constitution. This would facilitate ratification of the US-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan joint declaration and the restoration of trade and transport links, boosting investor confidence.

However, continuation of its reform mandate also brings fiscal and overheating risks,” warned Senior Economist Mateusz Urban. “Civil Contract is expected to pursue expansionary policies, particularly through higher public investment for modernisation and infrastructure. While public debt remains manageable, a pro-cyclical stance could reduce policy buffers and reverse recent improvements in investor perception. It could also heighten inflationary pressures due to elevated capacity utilisation, tight labour markets and rapid wage growth. Without tighter fiscal settings and improved policy coordination, inflation could stay high, monetary policy may tighten and external imbalances could widen," the center stated.

Rahim Tariverdiyev

Armenia parliamentary elections Civil Contract Party Oxford Economics Nikol Pashinyan constitutional referendum Karabakh reference Azerbaijan–Armenia joint statement US mediation regional trade transport corridors Armenian economy Mateusz Urban fiscal policy macroeconomic risks investor confidence