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Chamber: Volatility in energy and gold prices will directly affect state budget and revenues of SOFAZ

04 November 2025 11:42 (UTC +04:00)

In the medium term, volatility in energy prices will directly affect revenues of the consolidated budget through its two main components – the state budget and the budget of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), APA-Economics reports.

This is reflected in the opinion of the Chamber of Accounts on the draft law “On the State Budget of the Republic of Azerbaijan for 2026.”

It is noted that, in addition, the Fund’s revenues account for a high share of the consolidated budget (24.7–29.0%) and that a significant portion of its income is generated from the management of assets in its investment portfolio. This suggests that the Fund’s revenues will have a significant impact on the overall revenue dynamics of the consolidated budget. In this context, the income or losses generated from the Fund’s equity and gold assets in the medium term will have corresponding effects on consolidated budget revenues. It should be noted that during the first three quarters of 2025, the price of gold increased by approximately 1,200–1,300 US dollars, which can be considered a positive trend in terms of higher profitability of SOFAZ and, consequently, the growth of consolidated budget revenues.

“Taking into account the above-mentioned factors, we believe that the variability of numerous macroeconomic and market factors affecting consolidated budget revenues in the medium term — including oil and gas prices, the price dynamics of precious metals, as well as the volatility observed in global financial markets — along with the issues noted in the paragraph ‘Medium-Term Budget Planning’ of the Opinion, significantly limits the accuracy of consolidated budget revenue forecasts,” the Opinion states.