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Moody's reveals its outlook for economic growth in Azerbaijan

17 January 2026 09:07 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan's economy maintained positive growth in 2025 amid lower global oil prices, APA-Economics reports, citing international rating agency Moody's.

It was noted that albeit growth is at a slower pace as compared to 2024. Real GDP grew by 1.6% year-on-year over the first eleven months, and we expect full year growth to be around 1.5%. This performance reflects resilience in non-oil activities, which helped offset the persistent contraction in the oil and gas sector.

Meanwhile, Moody's expect softer oil prices and increased expenditure to result in a narrowing of the consolidated fiscal surplus, which includes the revenues and expenditures of the Nakhchivan region, various social-related funds, and the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), to about 2.4% of GDP in 2025 from 4% in 2024. The state budget is likely to record a mild deficit, driven by accelerated spending on infrastructure, reconstruction, and social programmes.