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Fitch Solutions: Azerbaijan’s average annual economic growth to reach 2.7% through 2035

08 January 2026 12:00 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan’s average annual economic growth will amount to 2.7% in 2025–2034, APA-Economics reports, citing the forecast by Fitch Solutions, a company within the Fitch Group.

It is noted that Azerbaijan’s economic growth trajectory will be more stable over the period covering 2025–2034. According to the assessment, during this period the country’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of 2.7%, whereas the average growth rate in 2014–2024 stood at 1.5%.

Fitch Solutions states that Azerbaijan’s extensive energy resources, particularly natural gas, will remain the main driving force of economic growth over the next decade. Demand for Azerbaijan’s energy resources in the European market will increase. According to the report, since 2005, oil revenues have accounted for approximately 30% of GDP and, in recent years, more than 75% of state revenues. Despite the possible decline in oil production, it is forecast that the share of the oil sector in GDP will remain high in the medium term amid stable oil prices.

According to the forecast, GDP per capita will increase from USD 8,558 in 2023 to USD 17,282 in 2034. Fitch Solutions notes the presence of upside risks for this indicator, taking into account currency stability. According to analysts, growth in nominal incomes and consumption could provide some support for diversifying the economy beyond the oil and gas sector.

The report emphasizes that excessive dependence on the energy sector increases the risks of “Dutch disease” in the long term. In this regard, it is noted that the government is planning measures to accelerate economic diversification. These measures include revising non-oil tax policy, introducing a unified tax system, and reducing VAT to support the development of medium-sized companies.

In addition, it is noted that the implementation of projects aimed at improving infrastructure in the energy and transport sectors will contribute to the formation of a competitive non-energy sector and support economic growth.