The Central Bank of Azerbaijan is expected to continue its cautious monetary policy course in 2026 and maintain the stability of the manat exchange rate, APA-Economics reports.
This was stated in a forecast released by Fitch Solutions on Azerbaijan.
According to the institution’s assessment, inflation will decline to 5.0% by the end of 2026. This figure is lower compared to the 5.6% recorded in 2025 and is in line with the Central Bank’s target range of 2–6%.
However, the report notes that geopolitical tensions and disruptions in supply chains keep inflation risks tilted to the upside. In particular, the impact of sanctions against Russia on food exports could indirectly affect Azerbaijan. It is stated that since Azerbaijan imports 20–30% of its grain, dairy products, and meat from Russia, it is sensitive to increases in transportation and operating costs.
Fitch Solutions believes that under these conditions, the Central Bank will maintain its cautious stance and gradually reduce the interest rate from the current 6.50% to 6.00% by the end of 2026.
The report emphasizes that the exchange rate policy will remain tightly managed. The manat is forecast to be maintained at the level of 1.70 AZN against the U.S. dollar. This reflects the government’s long-term commitment to currency stability.
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