"Azerbaijan’s public and external financial indicators are generally assessed as satisfactory," APA-Economics reports, citing international insurer and asset management group Allianz Group.
It was noted that although fiscal and current account surpluses are declining, they remain positive: “The fiscal surplus is expected to decrease to around 2% of GDP in 2026. This is linked to weakening oil revenues and rising social expenditures.”
“Allianz” also stated that the country’s banking sector remains stable and credit growth supports business activity. However, rising financing costs are putting pressure on banks’ profitability.
The company also emphasized that there has been no significant increase in indicators related to company bankruptcies. Nevertheless, weakening investment and tightening global financial conditions could raise corporate default risks: “This risk may be more pronounced among small companies. In addition, if oil prices remain at around USD 60 per barrel, this could lead to payment delays to suppliers in the energy sector. External debt is low (less than 10% of GDP), and sovereign risks are limited. However, dependence on hydrocarbons in fiscal and export revenues remains a structural vulnerability.”
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