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US-based Iranian analyst: Iran is unlikely to take any action against Azerbaijan unless Baku allows its territory to be used for attacks against Iran

01 March 2012 09:25 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. Washington, DC-based Iranian analysts commented on the recent diplomatic tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran, in their interview with APA.

Alireza Nader, Iran analyst at the RAND Corporationâ€™s Washington Office believes that the Iranian regimeâ€™s distrust of Azerbaijan is deep-rooted.

â€œThe Azerbaijanâ€™s government is secular, though most of the population is Shiâ€™a. Iran is of course a Shiâ€™a theocracy. In addition, millions of Iranians are ethnic Azeris; this population is often restive, as was demonstrated by recent protests over Iranâ€™s drying Lake Urumiaâ€.

According to the analyst, Iran is unlikely to take any action against Azerbaijan unless Baku allows its territory to be used for attacks against Iran. â€œNevertheless, warming ties between Israel and Azerbaijan will make Tehran more and more anxious in the futureâ€.

Dr. Jamsheed K. Choksy, a Member of the United States National Council on the Humanities at the National Endowment for the Humanities, told APAâ€™s correspondent that, â€œIt is most regrettable that tensions are mounting between two neighboring states that share religious, cultural, ethnic, linguistic, and historical ties so closely.

â€œAzerbaijan needs to follow the stipulations of United Nations sanctions and other global mandates. At the same time, Azerbaijan should avoid its territory being used without its knowledge and consent by forces and agents of other countries. In this context, Azerbaijan needs to balance its bilateral, regional, and international relations with its own strategic and diplomatic needsâ€, he said.

The analyst added that, right now the leaders of Iran are under considerable stress because of deepening dissatisfaction at home and growing isolation abroad. â€œLikewise the regime in Tehran is deeply suspicious of any other nation in the region with ties to the US, EU, and Israel. Iranâ€™s leaders are worried that Azerbaijan could be used to stage attacks against Iranian nuclear and military facilities. That is the reason for Iranâ€™s threatsâ€.

In the meanwhile, he said, it is unclear if the American and Israeli governments have established definite timetables for attacking Iranâ€™s nuclear sites. â€œBoth nations have made it clear that option is under consideration, but whether one or both will follow through is unclear. A lot depends on how the government of Iran responds and acts over the coming weeks and months. At this point in time it is more likely that a rash action by Iran â€“ such as attacking merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf or attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20 to 40 percent of the worldâ€™s daily crude oil supply passes) could trigger warâ€.

According to the analyst, Iran is unlikely to attack Azerbaijan and its facilities unless it believes that Azerbaijan has been the launching or transit point for attacks against Iran. â€œAny attack of that nature by Iran against its neighbors is likely to trigger a greater and broader international response against Tehranâ€.

However, he adds, unfortunately Iranian Azeris may get caught in the tensions between the two nations, coming to be viewed with suspicion by the leaders in Tehran. Such a development will compound the internal problems Iran has. Azerbaijan should be understanding and watchful of this situation.

Ali Alfoneh, a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), says that the Republic of Azerbaijan and Iran mutually recognize each other as sovereign states. â€œBoth states must therefore resist the temptation of intervening in the internal affairs of the other, while attending to public grievances within their own realms which could be opportunistically used by the otherâ€.

According to the analyst, history separated the Republic of Azerbaijan and Iran, but they should not forget that what unites Azeris and Iranians is far greater than what divides them.

He also says that the US is not preparing a land invasion of Iran and â€œI do not see anyone advocating for a land invasionâ€.

â€œShould the unwise policies of the Islamic Republic force the US or allies to start air campaigns against Iranâ€™s nuclear installations, one canâ€™t dismiss the threat of retaliation against states which somehow assisted the US and allies.â€