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US analyst Dale Herspring: â€œThe conflict could easily spread to Azerbaijan and the Transcaucasiaâ€ - INTERVIEW

US analyst Dale Herspring: â€œThe conflict could easily spread to Azerbaijan and the Transcaucasiaâ€ - <font color=red>INTERVIEW</font>

28 February 2012 09:17 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. APAâ€™s interview with Dale Herspring, a retired 23-year US Foreign Service officer and 32-year veteran of the US Navy. Mr. Herspring currently serves as a University Distinguished Professor at the Kansas State University and foreign policy analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, in Washington DC.

- How would you describe the current tensions in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations? Although, Azerbaijan insists that it will never allow use its territory against Iran, at the same time Iran suspects Azerbaijan in collaboration with the Israeli intelligence services. What kind of policy should Azerbaijan pursue at this moment?

- Stand firm. Ironically, Baku may be able to get the Russians to help out here. It is not in their interest to see problems develop in Azeri-Iranian relations. As far as Israeli intelligence is concerned, that is Bakuâ€™s concern and as is the case in the US, the answer to any such question is simple, "Our government does not comment -- either confirm or deny -- any comments concerning intelligence actions.

- Taking into consideration that Iran and Azerbaijan are some of the few states with a predominantly Shia population and with many ties of kinship, what has caused the antipathy of the current regime in Tehran towards its northern neighbor? Does Iran dislike Azerbaijan for the only reason of relations with Israel?

- I suspect, (but cannot prove) that the Iranians are convinced of the Israeli connection. Given the ideological incoherence that pervades Iranian thinking they are probably convinced that Baku is working against them. Similarly, given the recent comments out of Teheran, they are probably also convinced that they can be the big bully -- they need only to say something and Baku will do what they say.

- Today everyone talks about the possible war against Iran. How real is an American military invasion of Iran?

- My guess -- and I mean my guess -- is that there will first be an Israeli action. Teheran will respond as if everything was cleared in Washington. That is nonsense of course, but Teheran will move to close the straits and the US Navy will make short work of the so-called Iranian Navy. Then they will turn to Hamas and Hezbollah. On this one, the Russians are right, this is will set off a conflict that will be unpredictable. It could easily spread to Azerbaijan and the Transcaucasia. Only God knows where it will all end -- and he has been rather quiet in telling us what to expect.

- Some analysts urge that Iran might attack Azerbaijan, if the tension escalates. Do you share such concerns?
- Given the American mind set, if we are attacked (say in the Gulf) the response will be massive. I do not mean nuclear weapons; I mean bunker busters, and whatever it takes to put the Iranian Navy at the bottom of the Gulf, and other key targets.

- What might be Azerbaijanâ€™s role if the tensions around Iran grow?

- First, keep in mind that the Russians do not want this to spread and they can be a major ally. As far as the question is concerned, that all depends on the mind-set in Teheran. As far as I am concerned, I expect Baku to be a voice of reason in the Muslim world. I would hope that it will protect itself and become a voice of reason uniting the Americans and Russians in a push for peace. Just a personal view.