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Oxford Economics: If oil rises to $140, a mild global recession may begin

12 March 2026 10:20 (UTC +04:00)

A sustained rise in global oil prices to around 140 US dollars per barrel over two months could push some parts of the global economy into a mild recession, APA-Economics reports.

This was stated in a new report by the Oxford Economics analytical center.

According to the report, such a scenario could be accompanied by rising tensions in global energy markets and additional risks in supply chains.

It is noted that the pace of the subsequent economic recovery will largely depend on how quickly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, as well as how quickly oil prices, supply chain tensions, and pressures in financial markets decrease.

According to the scenario identified by the company’s analysts, if the average price of Brent crude oil remains at around 140 dollars per barrel for two months and natural gas prices rise sharply, additional negative effects could lead to a 0.7% decline in global real GDP by the end of 2026.

According to the analysis, in such a situation economic activity in the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan may experience a mild contraction. The US economy may approach a temporary stagnation phase, with unemployment expected to rise and the country potentially nearing recession.

At the same time, global inflation is also expected to accelerate. According to the report’s authors, the increase in the global consumer price index (CPI) could reach a maximum of 5.8%.

Analysts note that this figure is lower than the 8.9% peak recorded in 2002. This is explained by expectations that the increase in energy prices will be more limited and disruptions in supply chains will be less severe.

However, the authors of the report stated that the probability of this worst-case scenario materializing is assessed as low.