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ING: Escalation in the Middle East could push oil prices up to $140 in worst-case scenario

02 March 2026 11:28 (UTC +04:00)

Rising military tensions in the Middle East have created a serious risk of price increases in energy markets, said Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING Group, APA-Economics reports.

According to him, oil prices are expected to rise following the attacks carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran. The sustainability of the price increase will depend on the duration and scale of the military operations.

The analyst noted that the price of Brent crude oil traded on ICE could climb to the $80–90 per barrel range in the short term. In the event of serious and prolonged supply disruptions, prices could exceed $100 and, in a worst-case scenario, reach as high as $140 per barrel.

Patterson pointed out that Iran’s main oil export terminal, Kharg Island, is at risk. Approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil are exported daily from this route, with China being the primary buyer.

At the same time, Israel has temporarily shut down the Leviathan and Karish gas fields for security reasons. In addition, Iran’s statement about potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz has created further risks in global energy markets. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, along with more than 100 billion cubic meters of LNG annually, accounting for around 20% of global LNG trade.

The analyst stressed that a potential blockade would be particularly sensitive for Asian countries. About 84% of oil and 83% of LNG passing through the Strait of Hormuz are directed to Asian markets, with China as the main buyer.

V. Patterson hesab edir ki, ciddi təchizat kəsintiləri baş verərsə, hökumətlər strateji neft ehtiyatlarından (SPR) koordinasiyalı şəkildə istifadə edə bilər. ABŞ-ın strateji ehtiyatları hazırda təxminən 415 milyon barel təşkil edir. Bununla belə, ehtiyatlardan istifadə yalnız müvəqqəti rahatlama verə bilər.

Although OPEC+ countries have decided to increase output by an additional 206,000 barrels per day in April, this volume may not be sufficient to fully stabilize the market in the event of large-scale supply disruptions.

According to the analyst, risks are also elevated in the global LNG market. If LNG flows from Qatar and the UAE are disrupted, European gas prices (TTF) could rise to €80–100.