Fitch Solutions (FS), part of the Fitch Group, has again set its economic growth forecast for Azerbaijan at 2.6% for this year and 2.4% for 2026, APA-Economics reports, citing FS.
The report states that despite the government’s steps aimed at diversifying the economy, the oil-gas sector still has a significant impact on the country’s growth rate.
According to the report, due to Azerbaijan’s high dependence on the oil-gas sector (38.5% of GDP), the decline in global oil prices reduces revenues from this sector and weakens overall growth: “In 2025 alone, the price of oil is expected to fall by an average of 15%. For 2026–2027, risks in oil price forecasts are mostly on the upside. This is explained by the possibility that sanctions imposed on Russia may restrict part of the global oil supply.”
FS believes that the non-oil sector in Azerbaijan will continue to support growth against the backdrop of recent trade agreements and a gradual recovery in capital investments. Due to the prioritization of social spending, the contribution of private consumption to growth will increase.
According to the document, in 2027–2028 the real GDP growth rate in Azerbaijan will rise to 2.9%, in 2029 it will reach 3.6%, and in 2030 it will decline to 2.8%.
Nominal GDP is expected to reach USD 102.4 billion this year, USD 110.5 billion next year, USD 115.6 billion in 2027, and USD 121 billion in 2028.
In 2029, the country’s nominal GDP will exceed USD 130 billion, and in 2030 it will reach USD 141.5 billion.
GDP per capita is forecast at USD 9,740 for this year, USD 10,468 for next year, and USD 10,912 in 2027. It is noted that this figure will exceed USD 11,000 in 2028, USD 12,000 in 2029, and USD 13,000 in 2030.
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