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Fitch expects European gas prices to gradually decline

06 October 2026 11:19 (UTC +04:00)

Fitch Ratings expects natural gas prices in Europe to gradually decline in the medium term, Jakub Zasada, EMEA Director for Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings, said this at the “Fitch in Azerbaijan” event held in Baku, APA-Economics reports.

He noted that when the agency updated its oil and gas price forecasts in September, it raised its price assumptions for Europe’s TTF gas. The main reason was a decline in LNG supplies from the Middle East.

According to Zasada, unlike oil shipments, it is more difficult to secure LNG supplies through alternative routes. The higher cost of LNG tankers and difficulties in insuring them have limited transportation.

He said the decline in LNG shipments from Qatar had caused a gas shortfall of around 50 million cubic meters in the global market. This is equivalent to approximately 10% of global LNG trade before the war.

The decline in supply intensified competition between European and Asian buyers for available LNG cargoes and put upward pressure on TTF prices.

Zasada noted that by the end of September, Europe’s gas storage facilities were around 71% full. In the same period in previous years, this figure stood in the 80–90% range.

Fitch believes that Europe has sufficient gas reserves in storage to balance the market and that the risk of a serious supply disruption is low. However, lower reserves compared with previous years are contributing to higher prices and volatility.

The agency expects TTF prices to decline in the future. This will be supported by the commissioning of new LNG production capacity in the United States and Qatar. Zasada said that, taking into account projects already under construction and approved, there could be a risk of oversupply in the global gas market toward the end of the decade.