Industry and Energy

Home page

Industry and Energy

Fitch unveils oil market forecast amid risks in Strait of Hormuz

Jakub Zasada, EMEA Director for Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings

06 October 2026 10:29 (UTC +04:00)

Fitch Ratings has kept its oil price forecast for 2026 unchanged at $87 per barrel and raised its 2027 forecast by $5 to $70 per barrel, Jakub Zasada, EMEA Director for Corporate Ratings at Fitch Ratings, said this at the “Fitch in Azerbaijan” event held in Baku, APA-Economics reports.

He noted that Fitch set its 2026 price assumption at $87 per barrel in the spring and has not changed the forecast despite the high volatility observed in the oil market in recent months.

According to Zasada, oil prices fell sharply to around $70 per barrel in mid-June. This was influenced by the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, as well as the restoration of oil flows to around 75% of pre-war levels.

However, this trend did not last long. The resumption of military operations in July, followed by attacks on infrastructure in Saudi Arabia in September, pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel.

The Fitch official emphasized that the continuation of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is of crucial importance for the global market. According to him, the situation around the strait remains volatile.

Zasada said Fitch expects the United States and Middle Eastern countries to be able to ensure the transportation of at least 10 million barrels of oil per day. Taking into account Saudi Arabia’s capacity to export around 5 million barrels per day through the East-West pipeline would also help preserve global supply.

According to the agency’s forecast, global oil supply will reach around 107 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, while demand will be around 104 million barrels per day. Thus, Fitch expects supply to exceed demand in the market.

The increase in supply this year is expected to come mainly from non-OPEC producers — the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. Additional production from these countries is expected to amount to around 1.5 million barrels per day this year and a further 1 million barrels per day next year.

Zasada added that a noticeable decline in global oil demand was observed in the second quarter of this year. Fitch expects demand this year to be lower than last year and to gradually return to 104 million barrels per day and higher levels in 2027.