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Azerbaijan is predicted to see 29% rise in hydrocarbons output

20 October 2008 08:45 (UTC +04:00)

CEE regional oil demand rose to an estimated 5.46mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2007 and should average5.61mn b/d in 2008, before reaching 6.25mn b/d by 2012.
Production of an estimated 12.74mn b/d in 2007 is forecast to reach 15.38mn b/d by 2012. CEE gas consumption in 2007 was an estimated 632 bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 772 bcm targeted for 2012. Production in 2007 of an estimated 802 bcm should reach 961 bcm by the end of the period. Azerbaijan’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was an estimated 1.63%, while its share of production was 1.12%. By 2012 its share of demand is forecast to be 1.81%, with the country accounting for 2.08% of supply.
Azeri real GDP growth is estimated by BMI at 18.6% for 2008, following an estimated 25.0% in 2007. BMI is assuming 13.0% growth in 2009 followed by 8.0% in 2010, 5.0% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012.Domestic consumption, having tumbled since the 1990s, should now have resumed a growth tack, estimated at an average 7% per annum. By 2012 the country could be using 144,000b/d of oil. Main government vehicle SOCAR currently accounts for almost half of domestic oil production but, in partnership with international oil companies (IOCs), it should raise national output from an estimated850,000b/d in 2007 to 1.3mn b/d by 2011/12. Gas output should increase from 9bcm to 20bcm during the forecast period.
Between 2007 and 2018 BMI is forecasting an increase in Azeri oil and gas liquids production of 29.4%, with volumes reaching a plateau of 1.3mn b/d in 2011-2014 before falling to 1.1mn b/d by the end of the10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 110.5%, with growth slowing to an assumed 7.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 216,000b/d by 2018. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2007 level of 9 bcm to 30 bcm by 2018, providing export potential increasing to 11 bcm.
Business Monitor International (BMI) publishes specialist business information on global emerging markets for senior executives in more than 125 countries worldwide. A wholly independent, London-based company, BMI has specialized in the analysis of global emerging markets since its foundation in 1984.