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George Mason Professor Mark N. Katz: Isolated Armenia to realize that it would be better off coming to terms with Azerbaijan voluntarily

19 December 2006 10:31 (UTC +04:00)

He thinks that the West has not somehow taken Georgia away from Russia; Russiaâ€™s hostile policy toward Georgia has driven it toward the West.
â€œIf Russia really wanted Georgia to be friendly toward Moscow, it would stop the games that it is playing in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These two territories are of great importance to Georgia, but can only be of minor importance to Russia. Truly great powers know that they can often gain influence by backing off,â€? he underlines.
As to the energy gamy being played by Russia in the â€œinternational pitchâ€?, Mark Katz believes that Russia can take advantage of its influence on energy security.
â€œIn the short run, Russia may be able to benefit from its dominance, but in the long run it will not. For in the long run, Europe can reorient its gas imports to liquefied natural gas, which it can obtain from Qatar, Nigeria, and other sources. Further, it is not clear how long the Russian gas reserves will last, especially when Russia refuses to alter its corrupt and hostile investment environment to attract the foreign capital and technology it desperately needs to maintain its gas exports,â€? Professor underlines.
Commenting on Turkeyâ€™s accession to the European Union, Professor Mark Katz believes that the so-called issues like Cyprus and Armenian genocide raised against Turkey are nothing but pretexts.
â€œI think there are many obstacles to Turkeyâ€™s joining the EU. Its being Muslim is, I would hope, not that large an obstacle. The EU does not want Ukraine or Russia either, and they are not Muslim. All three, though, have large, relatively poor populations that would be difficult to absorb. The EU doesnâ€™t want to say this, so it raises these other issues (Cyprus, Armenian genocide) in the hope that Turkey will react negatively which it has. I donâ€™t think Turkey will be admitted to the EU any time soon,â€? he insists.
Touching on the growth of Azerbaijanâ€™s military budget by exceeding Armenian total national budget, Professor believes that Azerbaijan would be better off inducing Armenia by its economic growth and prosperity.
â€œI understand how tempting it must be for Azerbaijan to use its energy wealth to build up its armed forces in order to take back Nagorno-Karabakh. I personally think, though, that Azerbaijan would be better off using its wealth to develop its economy and support the refugee population. Azerbaijanâ€™s peaceful economic development is, I believe, the most effective way of eventually inducing an isolated Armenia to realize that it would be better off coming to terms with Azerbaijan voluntarily,â€? he underscores. /APA/