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European Union study: â€œThe number of people wanting to leave Azerbaijan is falling year on yearâ€

17 May 2013 13:57 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Victoria Dementyeva – APA. The European UN has released a study on the situation in the six Eastern Partnership program countries. The study entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partner Partnership Countries” funded by the European Commission contains indicators and forecasts on internal and external migration, immigration.

Like many of its neighbours near and far, Azerbaijan is experiencing important demographic changes. According to the medium-term scenario of the UN’s population forecast, the number of able-bodied individuals aged 15–64 will increase to 6.55 million by 2015. This population growth will stimulate competition for employment. But on the other hand, because of the rapid decline of birth rates experienced since the 1990sthe 15–24-year-old population is projected to shrink from 1.74 million in 2006 to 1.54 million in 2015 and to 1.19 million in 2020. The result will be an aging labour force, an important factor contributing to urgency in undertaking further reforms in labour market policies and regulations, and with important ramifications with regard to the need to increase the domestic labour force through immigrant workers.

Employment also increased over the decade. Azerbaijan has one of the highest employment rates (60 percent) in the region. 5 According to statistics, employment increased by 671 thousand, or 18 percent, throughout 2000-2011 (Figure 4). Azerbaijan is also ahead of a number of CIS countries in this regard. For comparison, while the number of employed people increased in Azerbaijan, it declined in neighbouring Armenia and Georgia over the decade. Azerbaijan has one of the highest average monthly wages among CIS countries. Only Russia and Kazakhstan have higher wages. While the average monthly wage in Azerbaijan is 60 percent of the corresponding figure in Russia, it is 1.5 times higher than in Georgia, Armenia. In 2010 average monthly wage in Azerbaijan was $413.

On the other hand, the minimum wage is quite low. Despite a rapid increase, the minimum wage is still only just under 30 percent of the average monthly wage.

In Baku, the average monthly wage is twice the average figure in the regions. Such a difference in wage levels leads to migration of labour to the capital city and its surroundings. Thus, it is of no surprise that currently 45 percent of the employed population (about 2 million people) work in Baku and its suburbs.

Another reason behind people’s decision to migrate for economic reasons is related to the complicated situation in the regions. Problems with the provision of potable water, gas and electricity in various regions of the country, for example, were cited as reasons to leave for places with better public services. It is clear that along with these problems, employment is a big issue in the regions.

According to the State Statistical Committee and UN Population Division data used in the study, of a stock of about 1.4 million emigrants from Azerbaijan the great majority is directed to CIS countries (approximately 82%) with a preponderance of the Russian Federation (61 percent). The European Union accounts for a modest 2.5 percent of migrants (two-thirds of which are in Germany), and Israel and Turkey account for a further 2.4 and 1.3 percent.

Official migration statistics show that immigrants coming to Azerbaijan are mainly citizens from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) – (96 percent). The majority is from the Russian Federation, Georgia, Ukraine, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan (See: Figure 12). Immigrants from the 5 largest non-CIS countries who settled in Azerbaijan are the following: Turkey, Iran, Israel, China, and Pakistan.

It is clear from the results of these studies that the number of people wanting to leave Azerbaijan is falling year on year: “The number of foreign labour migrants who arrive in the country with the purpose of being engaged in labour activities is increasing. It is clear from the data of the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan that in the last three years migration flows have been positive.”