UAV Attacks in Chechnya and Ingushetia
On December 25, at around 08:30, reports circulated that the remains of destroyed UAVs had fallen on the Alaniya Mall Shopping Center in the Russian city of Vladikavkaz.
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APA has investigated and found that at around 09:10 on that day, a UAV crashed in the area of the city of Malgobek, Republic of Ingushetia. Also, information was spread that the territory of Chechnya was attacked by several UAVs in the morning of December 25. By the way, APA TV also broadcast a video showing the shooting down of one of the UAVs near the city of Grozny.
It should be noted that the Chechen Telegram channel "NIYSO", which opposes the Russian authorities, initially reported the drone attack at 09:24.
Yesterday, at around 12:00, the Secretary of the Security Council of the Chechen Republic, Khamzat Kadyrov, also shared a video on his Instagram page about the downing of one of the UAVs. At 13:54, the Head of the Republic of North Ossetia, Sergey Menaylo, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, reported that several regions of the North Caucasus Federal District of Russia had been attacked by UAVs.
In parallel with the news about these events, information and images began to circulate about the crash of the Embraer 190 passenger plane with the registration number "J2-8243" belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines CJSC (AZAL) flying on the Baku-Grozny route.
08:26: The plane disappears from radar near Makhachkala airport
According to FlightRadar24, the plane took off at 08:00 Baku time in a regular mode. During the flight, at 08:26, the aircraft's transponder registration in the FlightRadar24 system stopped near the Makhachkala airport. This suggests that the aircraft was exposed to active electronic warfare equipment while in Russian airspace. At 09:06, the transponder's registration in the FlightRadar24 system was reactivated over the Caspian Sea.
Thus, the time when the crashed aircraft's transponder stopped registering in the FlightRadar24 system coincides with the time of the UAV attack in the direction of the North Caucasus.
In a video posted on the Alioglu Telegram channel after the accident, Zaur Mammadov, a passenger on that flight, said that he heard two explosions during the flight. From this, it can be assumed that an abnormal situation arose on the plane during the flight and the aircraft was damaged by external impact.
Has the transponder been disabled due to external interference?
It should be noted that all vital control systems on aircraft are duplicated. It is likely that the transponder was turned off due to external interference near the Makhachkala airport, and 40 minutes later, thanks to the efforts of the crew, the aircraft switched to the backup control system, thereby reactivating the transponder.
Why did the pilot choose Aktau instead of Baku?
One of the questions that arises is why the plane flew from Makhachkala to Aktau and not to Baku.
The possible reason for this is, first of all, the relatively close distance from Makhachkala to Aktau compared to Baku.
The main reason is probably that the pilot, realizing that the plane was under attack, wanted to leave Russian airspace urgently. The air distance between Makhachkala and Baku is 350 km, and between Makhachkala and Aktau is 300 km. At the same time, if it had moved in the direction of Aktau, the plane would have left Russian airspace much faster. When moving in the direction of Aktau, the plane immediately went out to sea and left Russian airspace. When moving in the direction of Baku, it would have had to stay in Russian airspace for an additional 100 km.
According to experts, the damage to the tail of the plane seen in the video and photo images is similar to the damage caused by shrapnel that could have been caused by an explosion of air defense missiles. The low speed of the plane observed in the FlightRadar24 system and the unstable flight trajectory near the Aktau airport may be due to a malfunction in its tail.
The possibility of a "collision with a bird train"
The crew's initial explanation of the problem with the plane as a "bird strike" can be interpreted as a misunderstanding and miscalculation of the current situation. Thus, in the photos and videos of the plane that were released after the crash, as well as in flight, no traces or signs indicating a bird strike - blood stains, feather residue, etc. - were observed. Also, it is unlikely that the holes observed on the outside of the plane could have been caused by a bird strike. These holes are more likely to have been caused by a solid, sharp, high-temperature substance or material. In addition, in the videos released about the cabin of the plane, it is seen that the holes penetrated the interior of the plane in several cases, which gives reason to exclude the possibility of a "bird strike".
Chechnya did not release information about the drone attack
One of the noteworthy points is that contrary to Russian tradition, the Chechen territory did not issue an official press release regarding the December 25 attack on the territory of Chechnya.
According to some Telegram channels operating in the North Caucasus and opposing the Russian government, the lack of official press releases by Chechen state institutions about the December 25 attack on the territory of Chechnya is because Chechen officials knew that the plane was damaged precisely as a result of the activation of the air defense system against UAV attacks.
Russians write: Plane was shot down with Pantsir-S1 missile
Commenting on the crash of the AZAL plane and the traces found on board the plane, Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels such as "Rybar", "Mir segodnya s Yuri Podoliaka", "VChK-OPGU" and aviation analysts, as well as military experts Oliver Alexander, Julian Röpke, Serik Mukhtibayev, Richard Aboulafia, Yan Matveyev and Ruslan Leviyev, assumed that these traces were caused by the explosion of air defense missiles.
The "Nevzorov" Telegram channel, run by journalist Alexander Nevzorov, noted: "Part of the damage to the fuselage of the plane is cylindrical, which corresponds to the shape of the warhead of the "Pantsir-S1" missile...
... Realizing that a civilian plane had been shot down, Grozny did not allow it to land in Makhachkala and redirected it to Aktau - that is, sent people to "perish" at sea..."
The "BChK OGPU" Telegram channel, which is known by Russian state authorities as a "foreign agent", wrote, commenting on the text of the conversation between the control tower of the Grozny airport and the crew of the plane: "The plane fell victim to radio-electronic barriers connected to protect against UAV attacks. As soon as the plane began to land, its GPS turned off and the controller lost "radar contact". The pilot could not land the plane in such conditions and decided to fly to Baku. When the plane began to turn to do this, an explosion occurred near it. Everything "It shows that air defense systems shot the plane down..."
Where was the plane hit?
Analysis and data indicate that the plane was hit at an altitude of 2.4 kilometers in the Naursky district, 18 kilometers north-northwest of Grozny airport. According to information obtained from open sources, several military units, including air defense systems, are located in that area.
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