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â€œTrans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline emerges as the optimal solution for transporting Azerbaijani gas to Europeâ€, Vladimir Socor

08 February 2012 17:15 (UTC +04:00)

â€œThe pipeline is planned to be built from 2012 to 2017, with a capacity of up to 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually (revised upward from 24 bcm), at an estimated cost of $5 billion to $6 billion, mainly to be covered by Azerbaijan. It would run from the Georgia-Turkey border to the Turkey-Bulgaria border, there to link up with a continuation pipeline (possibly an abridged Nabucco reiteration) into south-eastern and central Europeâ€, he mentioned in his latest analysis on the topic, APAâ€™s US correspondent reports.

According to the analyst, unlike Nabucco and three other, lesser pipeline projects, all competing over Azerbaijani gas, Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline holds all the decisive advantages.

â€œThis project guarantees gas supplies from Azerbaijan in strategic volumes. It allows for volume increments from Turkmenistan, if and when Turkmen gas crosses the Caspian Sea. Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline s self-financed, with Azerbaijan drawing on its oil revenues to finance up to 80 percent of its construction costsâ€, he underscored, adding, the pipeline would operate as a dedicated pipeline, an exclusive one, independent of national governments and their pipeline grids along the route to Europe.

â€œIt targets the right markets, those that need both the added volumes and diversification of suppliers. Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline is planned to be scalable, i.e., gradually reaching full operating capacity in step with gas production increases, so as to avoid financial losses from temporary below-capacity useâ€, he said.

Mr. Socor also mentions that Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline does not invalidate Nabuccoâ€™s basic rationale, which for more than a decade was the only pipeline project for transporting Caspian gas to EU territory.

â€œAt its core at least, that rationale is common to Nabucco and Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline: transporting Azerbaijani and, potentially, Turkmen gas to Europe (rather than Russia) through a dedicated transit pipeline, on a route outside Russian controlâ€.

However, he adds, Nabucco seems far from ready to proceed with implementation, while Azerbaijan is capable of implementing its Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline project without delay from its own resources. â€œEmerging as a significant â€œgas nation,â€ Azerbaijan could no longer wait indefinitely for Nabucco to proceed