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IMF: South Caucasus and Central Asia show resilience to Middle East crisis

15 October 2026 10:05 (UTC +04:00)

Despite the negative impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on global energy markets and trade, many countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia are maintaining their economic resilience, said Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), during a briefing, APA-Economics reports.

According to him, although the economies of countries directly affected by the military conflict are facing serious pressures, other countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, as well as most countries in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, have demonstrated greater resilience.

The IMF official noted that the region's economic prospects will depend on the pace of recovery in energy production and international trade, as well as the maintenance of macroeconomic stability.

Jihad Azour stated that oil production has declined sharply in almost all oil-exporting countries directly affected by the conflict. Disruptions in maritime transportation and the supply of petroleum products have led to higher fuel prices.

However, pre-conflict budget surpluses, alternative transport routes, oil production outside the Persian Gulf, and the use of strategic reserves have helped limit economic losses to a greater extent than initially expected.

The IMF official warned that the ability of these factors to mitigate negative impacts is gradually diminishing. Against the backdrop of declining reserves and limited additional production capacity, further disruptions in energy supplies could lead to sharper price fluctuations.