Fitch Solutions forecasts that Azerbaijan’s general government budget will be executed with a surplus in 2026 and 2027, APA-Economics reports.
According to the company’s report on the Azerbaijani economy, the country’s general government budget surplus is expected to amount to 2.4% of GDP in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027.
The company noted that budget revenues exceeding expectations in late 2025 and the first half of 2026 led to a significant improvement in the country’s fiscal outlook.
In this regard, Fitch Solutions revised its previous expectations and forecast that Azerbaijan would record a budget surplus in both years. However, the surplus is expected to decline relatively in 2027.
According to the company’s analysts, the positive fiscal indicators are linked to higher oil and gas revenues driven by high global energy prices, prudent fiscal policy, and the continued increase in tax revenues from the non-oil sector.
The report states that Azerbaijan’s 2026 state budget indicates the continuation of measures aimed at strengthening fiscal sustainability. In this context, increasing the share of non-oil revenues and reducing dependence on transfers from the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) are assessed as key priorities.
According to Fitch Solutions’ forecast, non-oil revenues will account for 57.4% of state budget revenues in 2026. The company views this as progress toward expanding the budget’s revenue base and forming more sustainable sources of financing.
Analysts also noted that the government’s conservative approach to oil prices in its budget calculations provides additional protection against volatility in external markets. It was also emphasized that current energy market conditions generally support the country’s fiscal indicators.
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