"Regarding gas production, which has seen significant growth in recent years, we anticipate it to stabilize and reach its peak either this year or the next," Erich Arispe, senior director in Fitch Ratings and Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings Group, told APA-Economics.
"We have observed a sustained decline in oil production over the past several years, which accelerated in 2022-2023," he said.
"However, with the commencement of new production, particularly from the Azeri Central Platform in 2024, we expect this decline to moderate to around 2-3% annually between 2025 and 2028."
According to Arispe, looking ahead, diversification efforts are not solely focused on public finances and exports but also on overall economic growth: "For several years, the energy sector has been a drag on economic expansion. However, the stabilization observed in 2024, or at least a slower decline in oil production, should support broader economic growth prospects."
The key challenge, Arispe emphasized, remains the extent to which new developments can be made in the medium term. In the case of gas, future production growth depends on the possibility of increasing exports to the EU, which, in turn, relies on long-term contract agreements. "These agreements are essential for developing additional reservoirs, expanding upstream capacity, and enhancing transport infrastructure," he stated.
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