The rapid decline in the water level of the Caspian Sea has already become a strategic problem that goes beyond the environmental agendas of individual littoral states, affecting the region's economic security, transport links, and future development prospects. The remarks made by President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev at the expanded meeting of the Caspian Environmental Summit held in Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan, on October 9 once again highlighted the importance of a systematic approach to addressing this problem, APA reports.
The head of state emphasized that preserving the Caspian Sea as a space of peace, stability, and constructive partnership serves the interests of all Caspian littoral states. This approach is not accidental. In addition to being an important economic and transport basin connecting Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, the Caspian Sea is also significant in terms of energy resource transportation, international trade, fisheries, and the socio-economic development of coastal areas.
As noted in President Ilham Aliyev's speech, the total surface area of the Caspian Sea has already decreased by more than 20,000 square kilometers. This figure demonstrates the scale of the problem and indicates that the continuation of the current trend could lead to serious consequences.
Under these circumstances, the main issue is not merely to record the decline in water levels, but also to accurately identify the causes of this process, assess the impact of human activities, and ensure coordinated measures by the Caspian littoral states to prevent its consequences.
Volga river: One of the main factors affecting the Caspian Sea's water balance
It is no coincidence that the Volga River occupies a special place in discussions about the shallowing of the Caspian Sea. Approximately 80 percent of the river water flowing into the Caspian Sea comes from the Volga. Therefore, changes in the river's flow directly affect the sea's water balance.
The management of water resources in the Volga basin, the operation of reservoirs and hydraulic structures along the river, water withdrawals for irrigation, and water use for industrial and other economic needs are factors that may affect the volume of water reaching the Caspian Sea. The accumulation of a certain portion of river flow in reservoirs and the use of water for various purposes alter the natural flow regime. The extent to which these factors affect the volume of water entering the Caspian Sea must be determined through regular measurements and scientific analyses.
The extensive system of reservoirs built along the Volga River and the rules governing the use of water resources require particular attention in this regard. The issue concerns not only individual hydraulic structures but also the management of the entire river basin. When allocating water resources, it is crucial to take into account the needs of ecosystems located in the lower reaches of the basin, including the Caspian Sea.
Precipitation, rising temperatures, surface evaporation, and other hydrological factors also affect the sea's water balance. However, the fact that the Volga is the main source of water for the Caspian Sea makes it necessary to comprehensively investigate the changes caused by human activities in this river basin.
For this reason, the exchange of information among the Caspian littoral states on reservoir operations in the Volga basin, water withdrawals for irrigation and industrial purposes, and changes in river flow along different sections of the river is of particular importance. Without such information, it is difficult to accurately assess the scale of the anthropogenic causes of the problem and develop long-term measures.
Roots of the problem and President Ilham Aliyev's timely initiative
President Ilham Aliyev has not raised the issue of the shallowing of the Caspian Sea for the first time. The head of state drew particular attention to this issue at the Sixth Summit of the Heads of State of the Caspian Littoral States, held in Ashgabat on June 29, 2022, and proposed the establishment of joint expert groups consisting of specialists from the Caspian littoral countries to investigate the causes of the problem and prevent its consequences.
The continued decline in water levels in subsequent years has further increased the relevance of this initiative. At the summit held in Turkmenbashi on October 9, 2026, President Ilham Aliyev emphasized the importance of moving from general discussions of the problem to the establishment of a permanent cooperation mechanism.
The Decision of the Heads of the Caspian Littoral States on the Outcomes of the Summit provides for the establishment of a five-party Commission. The Commission's main task is to identify the causes of the decline in the Caspian Sea's water level, develop coordinated comprehensive measures to combat the negative consequences of shallowing, and ensure their implementation. According to the decision, the Commission's first meeting is scheduled to be held in Azerbaijan in the first half of 2027.
This decision is significant in terms of transforming Azerbaijan's initiative into a concrete institutional outcome. This is because, for discussions on the shallowing of the Caspian Sea to yield sustainable results, a permanent coordination mechanism is needed alongside political will among the states.
From an environmental problem to an economic and strategic challenge
The consequences of the declining water level of the Caspian Sea are not limited to the retreat of the coastline. Shallowing affects port operations, shipping routes, cargo transportation capacity, fisheries, and the balance of the marine ecosystem. As a result of declining water levels, the depth of access channels to ports and conditions suitable for vessel navigation may change in some areas. This, in turn, requires additional technical measures and infrastructure expenditures.
Considering Azerbaijan's growing role in international transport corridors, the economic consequences of the Caspian Sea's shallowing become more apparent. The efficiency of East-West cargo transportation, the Middle Corridor, and transit operations carried out across the Caspian Sea depends on the existence of stable and predictable maritime conditions. Declining water levels may complicate the long-term planning of ports and shipping infrastructure.
From an environmental perspective, shallowing may lead to changes in coastal wetlands and other natural habitats, a decline in biodiversity, and the deterioration of living conditions for fish stocks and the Caspian Sea's rare fauna species. The socio-economic consequences of these processes are also inevitable: the livelihoods of people engaged in fishing, the development of coastal settlements, and opportunities to use natural resources are at risk.
Therefore, protecting the Caspian Sea is not solely the responsibility of environmental authorities. It is a complex issue that requires the coordination of transport, energy, agriculture, economic, and regional security policies.
Five-Party cooperation must translate into tangible results
First and foremost, a joint action plan based on scientific evidence must be developed to prevent the shallowing of the Caspian Sea. To this end, the volume of water entering and leaving the sea's water balance, the dynamics of river flows, evaporation rates, and anthropogenic impacts must be assessed using a unified methodology.
In particular, a comparative analysis of data on the flow of the Volga River, reservoir management, and water withdrawals for irrigation and industrial purposes is important. This could make it possible both to determine the impact of human activities and to assess more accurately the role of natural climate changes.
At the next stage, the Caspian littoral states must establish concrete cooperation mechanisms in the areas of efficient water resource use, preservation of ecological flows, information exchange, and joint monitoring. At the same time, adapting port and transport infrastructure to changing water levels, protecting coastal ecosystems, and conducting long-term risk assessments should also be integral parts of the joint action plan.
The Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in 2018, and other existing international documents provide an important legal framework for cooperation. The main issue now is to supplement this framework with practical mechanisms, define the responsibilities of states, and ensure oversight of the implementation of adopted decisions.
President Ilham Aliyev's strategic vision
President Ilham Aliyev's speech at the Turkmenbashi summit clearly demonstrates Azerbaijan's position on the shallowing of the Caspian Sea: the problem can be resolved not through the individual efforts of separate countries, but through the coordinated actions of all Caspian littoral states.
The management of the Volga River's water resources, the impact of reservoirs and other hydraulic structures, as well as the factors contributing to the decline in river flow, should occupy a special place in the investigation of this process. At the same time, it is important to scientifically assess the role of climate change and evaporation. The goal is not to turn the causes of the problem into a subject of political disputes, but to identify all contributing factors and find effective solutions to preserve the Caspian Sea's water balance.
The continuation of the initiative put forward in 2022 with the decision to establish a five-party Commission in 2026 demonstrates that Azerbaijan has kept this issue on the long-term regional agenda. The Commission's main task is to translate this political agreement into scientific research, concrete measures, and regular assessments of the results.
The future of the Caspian Sea concerns not only the littoral countries but also the future of the region's transport, energy, and environmental security. Therefore, protecting the sea requires shared responsibility, sustained cooperation, and long-term strategic planning.
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