According to the updated forecasts of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), if the current conditions remain unchanged, inflation in the base scenario is expected to be 5.4% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025, APA-Economics reports citing CBA.
It was noted that the change in the inflation forecast in the direction of increase is mainly due to the expectation of the strengthening of the nominal effective exchange rate of the manat at a lower rate, as well as changes in the prices and tariffs of products and services whose prices are regulated by the state. The direct and indirect incremental effect of the increase in regulated prices on the inflation forecast is expected to be 1.5 percentage points, of which 1 percentage point may be realized in 2024. Further decisions regarding keeping the discount rate unchanged or increasing it will depend on the actual inflation and forecast, as well as the dynamics of external and internal risk factors.