EU estimates Ukraine entitled to €186bn after accession

EU estimates Ukraine entitled to €186bn after accession
# 04 October 2023 11:33 (UTC +04:00)

Ukraine’s accession to the EU would entitle Kyiv to about €186bn over seven years, according to internal estimates of the union’s common budget, turning “many” existing member states into net payers for the first time, APA reports citing Financial Times.

The modeling, the first to emerge from Brussels on the potential accession of nine new member states, underlines the profound political and financial implications of expanding the union across the continent. Clearing a path for Ukrainian membership has been a top priority for EU leaders since Russia’s full-scale invasion last year, says the source.

EU officials this summer estimated the potential financial ramifications in a study seen by the Financial Times, which used existing rules for the union’s 2021-27 budget. These were applied to an enlarged union including Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and six western Balkan states.

The financial tally of adding all nine members to the existing budget, known as the multiannual financial framework, would be €256.8bn, the paper estimates. The knock-on effects for existing member states would include a cut in farm subsidies of about a fifth.

With nine new member states, the current budget would increase by 21 percent to €1.47tn, the paper estimates. That equates to about 1.4 percent of the 36 countries’ gross national income.

The entry of nine states would force a number of “far-reaching” adjustments that could include a significant increase in net budget contributions from richer states such as Germany, France and the Netherlands. “Transitional periods and safeguard measures” would be necessary, the paper suggests.

Applying current rules to an expanded union, Ukraine would be eligible for €96.5bn from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy over seven years. That financial shift would force cuts in farm subsidies to existing member states of about 20 percent, according to the study.

Ukraine would also qualify for €61bn in payments from the EU’s cohesion funds, which aim to improve infrastructure in poorer member states. With nine additional member states, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta would no longer be eligible for cohesion funding, the study estimates.