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Deutsche Bank sees oil price at $47.50 for 2009

11 December 2008 13:02 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Vahab Rzayev â€“ APA-Economics. Deutsche Bank AG forecast oil prices to average $47.50 a barrel next year on speculation OPEC may be unable to support the market as demand shrinks, said Deutsche Bank chief energy economist Adam Sieminski at at the Deloitte 2008 Oil & Gas Conference.
Weâ€™re actually pretty near the bottom of the oil cycle pricewise. It could dip a little bit lower from where we are now. We might see $30. But itâ€™s not going to stay there," he said.
He forecast crude oil will average $47.50 a barrel in 2009, $55 in 2010 and then zoom to about $80 a barrel in 2011 because world economic growth, after falling to "very near zero" in 2009, will rebound to 2.6 percent in 2010 and stay positive thereafter for a while.
He added that lower fuel prices should persist for a while, helping to boost the economy
Every penny drop in the price of gasoline provides a $1 billion stimulus to consumer spending in the United States, Sieminski said. Worldwide, a $20 per barrel drop in oil prices is worth $700 billion, equal to the recent U.S. bailout package.
Oil prices near $40 are going to delay frontier oil projects such as oilsands development in Canada and shale gas plays in the United States, and that will decrease supply, stabilize prices and in the end boost them.
Oil prices at about $80 are needed to sustain investment, he said.