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Reverse effect of the Caucasian War

25 September 2008 14:39 (UTC +04:00)

The five-day war further reinforced the attention of the West to Caspian energy
Sooner or later, this should have happened, the West viewed the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (here also includes Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum) as the artery of strategic importance, to reduce the dependence of Europe Russia and Iran, bypassing them.

Currently, it is clear that attempts by Iran, with not so favorable international position, at creating tension in the region will not lead to positive results for this country. Taking into account that such a move would cause severe reactions by the United States, the official Tehran took a long wait. At the same time, nobody in the West and the post-Soviet area expected that Russia will â€œprotectâ€ its interests in the region with such overt aggression, violating all international norms and principles. Back in 2000, being confident in the safety of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the then U.S. President Bill Clinton praised the construction of the pipeline as Â«the greatest achievement of the late 20th centuryÂ».

Russia and Georgia have accused each other of levying the Â«five-day WarÂ». Soon it became evident that there are other motives behind the invasion of the Russian army in Georgia under the guise of protecting its Â«citizensÂ» and Â«peacekeepersÂ» in South Ossetia. Sabotagew in the territories lying outside the zone of hostilities showed Russiaâ€™s premeditated plans to control the communications passing through the region. Interestingly, many questions arouse about explosion of a single railway bridge in Kaspi which transports oil from Azerbaijan and Central Asia, the bombing of a cargo train carrying oil products, the seizure of the port of Poti, an â€œaccidentalâ€ explosion in the BTC pipeline in the Turkish section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline a day before the outbreak of hostilities etc.
In fact, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashviliâ€™s decision to restore constitutional order in South Ossetia â€œtook place on timeâ€. Immediately after the events, political scientist Alexander Dugin who is close to the Kremlin said that Â«Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline has diedÂ».
This suggests that the main target of Russia was the energy corridor.

The roots of this antagonism between Russia and Georgia go back to the end of 2003 when US-educated Mikhail Saakashvili replaced Eduard Shevardnadze in presidency.
Â«Rose RevolutionÂ» in Georgia occurred in a very convenient time for the West, because after some time Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would be launched. Before the commissioning of the pipeline (July 2005) Georgia completely withdrew from the field of Russian influence. According to Saakashvili, the main cause of Russian aggression against Georgia was the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Participating in the seminar Atlantic Council in Washington on August 19, Speaker of the Parliament of Georgia David Bakradze openly declared the West: Â«If Russia will gets Georgia kneeled down, which is the main U.S. ally in the region, what will other countries do?Â». According to Bakradze, backing Georgia would not allow Russia to take control over the main export routes from the Caspian: Â«If Georgia falls under the influence of Russia, Azerbaijan will not be an alternative route for energy exports. Thismeans that Azerbaijan would be under the control of Russia without a shot firedÂ».

In early June, Alexei Miller offered Azerbaijan to buy Shah Deniz gas at market prices during his visit to Baku.
According to analysts, the main objective of this proposal was to prevent the Nabucco project which has supported by the West. Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are considered as the major suppliers for Nabucco.
The Trans-Caspian pipeline project that would link Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan climbed to the top in the agenda recently. Warming relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan give hope for the implementation of projects supported by the West. Then, the official Baku did not give a specific answer to Russia’s offer to but gas. Recent moves by Russia against Georgia raised doubts in the West about the safety Caucasus energy corridor and showed that the Central Asian countries can not independently make decisions on how to transport their hydrocarbon resources.
One more proof was that Russian trade officer in Azerbaijan Yuri Shedrin appeared at the height of the Georgian events to mention that Gazpromâ€™s proposal still stands.

Today the West is looking for a way out of this situation. At a time when the United States encouraged European countries to reduce energy dependence on Russia, European companies concluded cooperation agreements with Gazprom.
Currently, a number of European states taking part in Russian projects in North and South Streams. However, even without these pipelines, Russia is considered a major supplier of oil and gas for Europe. Last year, Russia supplied 38% of gas and 33% of oil in Europe. According to the calculations of the International Energy Agency, in 2030 the volume of gas imports to Europe will double and much of this by Russia.
The use of EU financial and economic sanctions on Russia could have a negative impact on Europe itself.
The closure of Yamal-Europe gas pipeline Â«for the repairÂ» when the EU summit in Brussels met on September 2 should be understood as another warning to the West.
Apparently, the West has been searching for solutions.
At the summit in Brussels British Prime Minister Gordon Brown tried to convince his colleagues that more funds should be allocated to diversify energy supplies in order to achieve a completely independent policy in Europe.
The EU Commissioner for Energy Affairs Andris Piebalgs recently issued a statement on the need for increased attention to the Nabucco.
The U.S. Vice President Richard Cheneyâ€™s trip to Azerbaijan also proved that the West does not intend to so easily abandon the hoped-for projects.
Backfiring on Russia, the Â«Five-day warÂ» only strengthened the West’s interest to the Nabucco and other alternative projects in the region
/APA-Economics/