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Stratfor analyst: â€œRussia doesnâ€™t see Nagorno Karabakh as they do South Ossetiaâ€ â€“ EXCLUSIVE

Stratfor analyst: â€œRussia doesnâ€™t see Nagorno Karabakh as they do South Ossetiaâ€ â€“ <font color=red>EXCLUSIVE</font>

09 August 2008 09:59 (UTC +04:00)

-How may the recent event in South Ossetia affect the situation in Nagorno Karabakh?

-Now that Russia is obviously in charge in Georgia, I donâ€™t see how the Government of Azerbaijan has a precedence to do something in NK. This should also worry Azerbaijan and Armenia to do anything without explicit approval of the Russians now. Russia has once again proved its strength and there are quite a few winners and losers in the situation. The winners are the Transdneisters, Abkhaz, pro-Russian Ukrainians and NKs, because they will be proud of Russia re-establishing its credibility as a security guarantor. Of course the so-called losers are pro-Westerners in Ukraine, Moldova, Balts and Europe.

- Russia has proved that the country has been fully involved in a recent clash with Georgians in the South Ossetia. Can Russians openly support Armenians as they are supporting Ossetia now if the war starts with Armenia?

-Armenia and Azerbaijan are a different situation than everyone else. They have a small region (NK) that may feel empowered by this. But to be honest, Russia doesnâ€™t see NK as they do South Ossetia and they sure as hell canâ€™t support them in the same way. And Armenia will not act without Russian consent. They know it is a suicide mission without the Russians and Moscow is now pre-occupied with other matters.

-How do international organizations have to respond to this event when Russia has deployed its troops in the territory of another state?

-As far as the big organizations like the UN & OSCE... Iâ€™m sure theyâ€™ll hold some nice meetings and release some "strong statements and warnings".... you know I donâ€™t believe in the power of those groups when it comes to things like this. Russia and the US are talking today, Russia and China are talking tomorrow and Russia and Germany are talking later this week all on head-of-state level... This is where the important meetings are and decisions will be made.