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Vusala Mahirgizi: AZERBAIJAN: US SHOULD TAKE NOTE: A FRIEND IN NEED IS A FRIEND INDEED - eurasianet.org

Vusala Mahirgizi: AZERBAIJAN: US SHOULD TAKE NOTE: A FRIEND IN NEED IS A FRIEND INDEED - <font color=red>eurasianet.org</font>

27 April 2010 10:26 (UTC +04:00)

http://eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav042610.shtml

US officials have declared that the United States regards the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia as separate processes. This policy, however, ignores the interests of Washingtonâ€™s main partners in the region -- Azerbaijan and Turkey. Brushing off Baku and Ankaraâ€™s objections to this policy risks further undermining US influence in the South Caucasus.
The reason why Washington wants to keep the Turkey-Armenia reconciliation process separate from the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations is clear. The White House considers that normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia will reduce Armeniaâ€™s dependence on Russia (and Iran) and allow Yerevan to maneuver beyond the reach of Russian pressure. With Armenia less dependent on Russia, the entire South Caucasus could be removed from the Kremlinâ€™s reach. Or so the reasoning appears to go.
But this aim does not take into consideration certain realities in the South Caucasus.
Even if Turkeyâ€™s border with Armenia is opened, Armenia will not turn its back on Russia and its face toward the West. On the contrary, this policy further serves Russiaâ€™s interests. As the United States forces Turkey to open its borders with Armenia, Russia will gain "an economically strengthened ally, Armenia," instead of "a weak, dependent partner."
This scenario is what prompts Ankara and Bakuâ€™s discomfort. Ignoring that discomfort could carry a heavy price.
Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a strategically important country located at the crossroads of East and West. To date, Ankara has used this strategic advantage for Washingtonâ€™s interests - whether by assisting with the NATO campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, or with various energy projects -- and should expect a reaction in kind from the United States.
The same holds true for Azerbaijan. Thanks to its Caspian Sea natural gas supplies, Azerbaijan is capable of reducing Europeâ€™s dependence on Russian gas, and ensuring the diversification of its imported energy resources. This is a policy that meets completely the strategic interests of the United States.
Surrounded by Russia to the north, Iran to the south and Armenia to the west, Azerbaijan is trying to protect its interests with a balanced foreign policy. In keeping with that policy, Azerbaijan, like Ankara, expects a sympathetic attitude from Washington toward its concerns about Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, and the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia.
At the very least, in response to Bakuâ€™s friendship with the United States, Azerbaijan should have been invited to join the summit earlier this month between Turkey and Armenia in Washington.
If their expectations of the United States fail, both Azerbaijan and Turkey could think of seeking new partners. This means weakening the American position in the region, and ceding a place to Russia. With recent events in Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine - widely seen as revenge for US inroads in the former Soviet Union -- Moscow has once more demonstrated that it is in touch with the psychology of Eurasian countries.
If the United States wants to strengthen its position in the South Caucasus, it can do it by helping to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; not by removing Armenia from Turkeyâ€™s blockade. If the Washington takes a fair position on the conflictâ€™s resolution, it will gain fundamental support in the region.
Azerbaijanâ€™s position is obvious. Baku will not allow any step that denies the link between the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia.
Turkey has taken a similar position. Statements by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu show that Turkey is trying to stay committed to this course as much as possible. As Foreign Minister Davutoglu stated at an April 15 news conference after his talks with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in Washington, Azerbaijanâ€™s absence from the discussions was a "deficiency."
How will Azerbaijan respond to Washingtonâ€™s demands on Turkish-Armenian reconciliation? Without detailed knowledge of the talks in Washington - shared by Davutoglu with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev last week -- that is impossible to predict. But the reality is that Azerbaijan will not react positively to any step that will eliminate its advantage in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict - namely, a closed border between Turkey and Armenia.