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US analyst: â€œThe US Congress should return on the issue of Turkey-Armenia protocols in a potential congressional debate over a future â€œgenocide resolutionâ€â€

14 February 2012 10:17 (UTC +04:00)

The report was prepared for the Members and the Committees of the Congress.

The analyst reminds that in late 2009, Turkey and Armenia, aided by Swiss mediation, agreed to joint protocols that would have normalized relations and opened borders between the two countries. They also would have called for a dialogue and impartial examination of the historical record with respect to â€œexisting problemsâ€.

â€œTurkish leaders were unwilling to push for parliamentary ratification of the protocols, however, due to Azerbaijani objections to Turkey-Armenia normalization prior to desired progress on the issue of Nagorno Karabakh. Azerbaijan influences Turkish policy on this issue because of its close cultural and economic ties with Turkey. Another possible cause for Turkish reluctance was a 2010 Armenian constitutional court ruling that indicated inflexibility on the genocide issueâ€, says the report.

Subsequently, the analyst adds, Turkey and Armenia have made little or no progress toward ratifying the protocols or otherwise normalizing their relations, though the protocols remain under consideration in Turkeyâ€™s parliament. â€œIn December 2011, Turkish media reported that Foreign Minister Davutoglu had consulted with Swiss officials to determine prospects for reviving talks aimed at normalization in the event of Armenia-Azerbaijan progress on Nagorno-Karabakhâ€.

The report also mentions Turkeyâ€™s role as a regional energy transport corridor is growing, particularly with respect to natural gas. With supply sources that include Russia, Iran, other littoral Caspian Sea states, andâ€” potentiallyâ€”Iraq, the importance of Turkeyâ€™s security for world energy markets has increased. â€œIn October 2011, Azerbaijan and Turkey reached final terms for the transit of Azerbaijanâ€™s Shah Deniz Phase 2 natural gas through the southern corridor. The terms specified that 565 billion-700 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas would transit Turkey, of which 210 bcf would be available for Turkeyâ€™s domestic useâ€.

Speaking about the US-Turkey cooperation, the author notes that the relations on issues affecting the Middle East became closer, partly because Turkey agreed to host a US radar as part of a NATO missile defense system. Nevertheless, developments during the Obama Administrationâ€”including Erdoganâ€™s downgrading of relations with Israelâ€”has led to questions about the extent to which US and Turkish strategic priorities and values converge on both a short- and long-term basis.