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US expert: â€œIt is unlikely to see any scenario where the Armenian issue would take precedence and the US could risk alienating Turkey as a key ally in the regionâ€ â€“ INTERVIEW

10 February 2012 10:33 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. APAâ€™s correspondentâ€™s interview with Cenk Sidar, Managing Director of the Washington, DC-based Sidar Global Advisors

- Armenia has pushed on the French Senate to pass a bill prohibiting a denial to call the 1915 events â€œgenocideâ€. This is not the first, and probably not the last time, Armenia is doing something like this. Where will these steps take Armenia in the end?

- It is extremely difficult to understand the reasoning behind Armeniaâ€™s insistence on such negative bills that will only eventually weaken the Armenian cause, as well as the countryâ€™s interests in the region and the world. The bill is a clear violation of individual freedoms and the European Convention on Human Rights, and I believe the international community is well aware of this. Given the importance attached to the issue by the Armenian diaspora, it is only natural to see that they consider the decision of the French Senate as a victory. However, I believe such a stance will hurt the stabilization and development prospects of Armenia, which suffers from poverty and underdevelopment. On the other hand, it is difficult to envision how Armenia could survive without the financial support of people of the diaspora, and thus it would be difficult for the country to move away from the diasporaâ€™s line of thinking. In short, attempts like these put Armenia in a very difficult position and I think they will eventually hurt the country’s well-being. Legal steps such as this also hurt freedom of speech and limit academic or social discussions, and they are destined to backfire in the end. The credibility of the Armenian cause will diminish among the rational actors who recognize these limitations.

- After practically slapping Turkey in the face with the French Senate decision, do you think Armenia has a chance for a possible reconciliation with Turkey in future?

- It is obvious that the Armenian side is not interested in reconciliation, and has closed the doors long before this. The Armenian lobby’s global campaign will just officially end the process, and kill any prospects for future reconciliation. Turkey is not the actor that will lose the most from the termination of this prospect. Given its economic situation and its difficult geographic position, landlocked between three countries, Armenia clearly has more stakes in the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Therefore, it is not easy to understand why it insists on a global campaign that is certain to kill any prospects of reconciliation. I donâ€™t predict any serious move in the US Congress for the â€œgenocideâ€ resolution, even though the Armenian lobby will push hard, as it has become their only cause for existence. The bill will undermine the protocols between Armenia and Turkey, as it will limit their ability to conduct open inquiry and debate. The Armenian government and diaspora will most probably step up their campaign to get international recognition of the â€œgenocideâ€ as the 100th anniversary of the incident approaches in 2015. This will put more pressure on Turkish officials to come up with new policies to handle this. However, it is difficult to see a scenario where the Turkish side could come up with anything that will satisfy the Armenian side.

- What would you suggest the United States to do regarding Turkey-Armenia rapprochement?

- The US would surely prefer to see an improvement in Turkey-Armenia, relations but it will not risk alienating Turkey, an important ally in a region where the US has considerable stakes. I don’t expect to see any serious US involvement at least until late 2012 in the reconciliation process. Especially now that the tension is high in the wake of the French National Assembly’s bill, I expect the US to stand aside and see what will happen. Given Turkey’s strategic position as a key US ally in the region, it is unlikely to see any scenario where the Armenian issue would take precedence and the US could risk alienating a key ally in the region. As enough number of French senators agreed to take the bill to the French Constitutional Court, the court will now consider if the law is constitutional. Washington will presumably wait to see how this plays out.

- France is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, and now its Senate accepts such a bill, what about Karabakh then? Will the bill affect the conflict adjustment anyhow?

- If the bill comes into effect, it will force France out of the equation, and most likely terminate the Nagorno-Karabakh adjustment process. It will also result in a further improvement in Azeri-Turkish relations. All in all, the bill, while recognized by the Armenian diaspora as a victory, will be detrimental to Armenian interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh process. It is likely to favor the Azeri position with regard to Nagorno-Karabakh, and further alienate Armenia in the region.

- Do you see Azerbaijan and Turkey as working together against Armenian propaganda in this case? How?

- Azerbaijan could help Turkey in resisting the campaign of the Armenian lobby, but the Azeri diaspora in the US is not in a position to push for Turkey’s position. The Azeri diaspora lacks the financial means and organizational skills of its Armenian counterpart, and its members are having problems even raising issues that are directly related to Azerbaijan in the US. Therefore, it is difficult to see how the Azeri lobby can provide any significant support to Turkey in resisting the campaign of the Armenian lobby on passing similar bills in other countries. Given Azerbaijan’s well-known position in regard to Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, it will be difficult for Azerbaijan to play an important role. However, I expect both governments to work together and the communities to grow closer.

- What are Azerbaijan and Turkeyâ€™s futures in terms of integrating into the European community?

- The current trend of parliamentary interference in history will slow down the integration of Azerbaijan and Turkey into the European structures. Azerbaijan is scarcely integrated in European structures anyway to begin with, and the Turkish public already has quite a low opinion of the EU. Clearly, this has gravely damaged Turksâ€™ perceptions of France. People in both countries will further lose their trust and confidence in the objectivity of European actors. It will be difficult for Western countries to persuade Turks and Azeris that they are impartial in light of these developments.