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An American expert John Sitilides: â€œAll signs continue to point to an October 13 signing agreement formalizing the normalization of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armeniaâ€

19 September 2009 20:03 (UTC +04:00)

- Do you expect any concrete outcome of the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Moldova scheduled for October 5-7th ?

- The Armenia-Azeri relationship is sufficiently loaded with mutual suspicion and mistrust that will not be overcome in a single meeting. However, there are larger forces at play in their respective societies, as well as in Turkey, Europe and the United States that are signaling a desire to invigorate a diplomatic process for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and addressing a lengthy series of attendant bilateral and regional challenges that emanate from the core conflict.

These challenges will not be overcome by the Turkish-Armenian diplomatic breakthrough alone, although that important development does mark a significant turn from prior policies of utter contempt and marginalization of adversarial parties. In a region fraught with ethnic violence, economic deprivation, political instability, the opportunity to achieve ideal outcomes necessarily begins with normalized relations and a process for conflict resolution, economic integration, and political democratization that ensures individual liberties and the rule of law for all citizens.

- If the mentioned negotiations will fail to bring any result, can it postpone President Sarkisyanâ€™s visit to Turkey on October 12th?

- Barring some extraordinary situation or crisis, the Turkish-Armenian diplomatic process will likely continue based upon the will and actions, or lack thereof, of the Turkish and Armenian parties. The Turkish government, starting with Foreign Minister Davutoglu, has been careful in its public statements to emphasize that its relationship with Azerbaijan will not be adversely affected by diplomatic outreach to Armenia . All signs continue to point to an October 13 signing agreement formalizing the normalization of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia .

- After the Protocolâ€™s signed, they should be approved by the Parliaments of two countries. Do you think that if there will be no improvements on Azerbaijan-Armenian negotiations, Turkey can withhold the ratification for as long time as possible?

- Though there is vigorous debate in Turkey , as there is in Armenia , about the respective ratification of the agreements, they will likely be approved. The problems may arise down the road if there is no or little meaningful progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, as both Turkey and Armenia will view each other with suspicion that benefits are accruing to the other at the expense of each sideâ€™s self-interest, especially regarding the conflict. On the Turkish side, Prime Minister Erdogan has flatly and bluntly announced that the Turkish-Armenian border will not be opened until the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved. So diplomatic relations can be normalized as a necessary mechanism for communicating, exchanging ideas, and resolving conflicts, but there is no guarantee that any of those objectives can actually be accomplished.

- If this happens, what will be the reaction of U.S.? Can U.S. force Turkey push forward with ratification of the Protocols and can they successed?

- The U.S. was unable in 2003 to persuade the Turkish parliament to approve the use of territory for a major land invasion of Iraq , a matter of paramount importance to U.S. national security interests. Clearly, the U.S. is limited in its ability to compel Turkey to take desired steps on other matters of consequence to U.S. interests. I do expect the Obama Administration and top congressional leaders to urge Turkey to remain focused on the long-term objective of normalized relations with Armenia . As the U.S. encourages Armenia, it will encourage Turkey to use its influence in Azerbaijan so that both sides can take bold, essential actions to resolve their conflict Armenia and help bring about peace, freedom and prosperity to all the people of their respective nations.