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Analyst: â€œTrans-Anatolian pipeline project would enable Azerbaijan, for the first time, to sell its own gas through its own pipeline, directly to European customersâ€

05 January 2012 09:32 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. The US analysts on European energy issues discuss the recently signed memorandum of understanding between Turkey and Azerbaijan that will facilitate the transit of Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe, changing the calculations over the EU-backed Southern Corridor concept, APA US correspondent reports.

Vladimir Socor, Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, considers that if implemented, the trans-Anatolia pipeline which would mainly carry Azerbaijani gas starting with the second phase of production at the Shah Deniz field, would replace the Nabucco project on Turkeyâ€™s territory; but it would still require the continuation line along Nabuccoâ€™s original route to central Europe.
â€œBeyond the trans-Anatolia pipeline, Azerbaijan expects to add significant gas volumes from other fields for export to Europeâ€, he notes. â€œHowever, Baku and Ankara consider a reconfigured and drastically shortened Nabucco, from Bulgaria via Romania and Hungary to Austria, as an option for carrying Azerbaijani gas into Europeâ€.
The analyst underlines that from Azerbaijanâ€™s perspective, the advantages of the trans-Anatolian pipeline project are self-evident. â€œIt would enable Azerbaijan, for the first time, to sell its own gas through its own pipeline, at Turkeyâ€™s western border with the EU, directly to European customersâ€.
â€œBaku describes this project as a â€œdirect road from Azerbaijan to Europeâ€ and â€œAzerbaijanâ€™s road into the future.â€ Indeed it would expand and prolong the countryâ€™s international significance as a hydrocarbon exporter, hitherto based on oil. Azerbaijan considers President Aliyevâ€™s decision on gas exports to Europe as no less important than his fatherâ€™s, the late President Heydar Aliyevâ€™s, decision on oil exports, in terms of Azerbaijanâ€™s strategic orientation and national developmentâ€, he mentioned.

Sabah Kardas, another Jamestown analyst, believes that latest developments regarding the trans-Anatolian raise many interrelated issues about the future of bilateral relations, as well as the EUâ€™s Southern Corridor project seeking to diversify European natural gas supplies tapping into Caspian basin reserves.
â€œWith this decision, Turkey and Azerbaijan took another step to cement their evolving strategic partnership, while Ankara also reconfirmed its Baku-centered South Caucasus policyâ€, he notes.
Mr. Kardas points out that, while Azerbaijan is eager to capitalize on its developing hydrocarbon reserves to emerge as a major regional actor in the South Caucasus, Turkey has sought to use its geographic location as an asset to establish itself as a major transportation corridor for oil and gas from the Caspian basin and Central Asia as well as the Middle East.

Dr. Robert Cutler, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies of Carleton University, also believes that Anatolia gas pipeline races towards reality.
â€œCompetition in the Southern Gas Corridor from the Caspian Sea basin to Europe continues to heat up, with more details about the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline emerging and Russiaâ€™s PM Vladimir Putin bringing forward construction of the South Stream pipeline under the Black Seaâ€, he noted in his latest research, citing Russiaâ€™s order construction of the Russian-Turkey-Europe South Stream pipeline to start by the end of 2012 instead of in 2013 as previously planned, despite having no identified sources for gas and no commitments for purchases.