Foreign

Home page

Foreign

American analyst: I do not expect Tehran to attack the infrastructure of any neighboring countries in the near future

20 June 2011 09:52 (UTC +04:00)

- You mention security threats in the Caucasus region in your recent book, what are those threats currently?

- As discussed in my recent book â€œthe Global Security Watch: The Caucasus States,â€ it is true that there is an external threat for each one of the South Caucasus states. However, the most significant factors in each case are internal threats to each country in the region. Such internal threats include ethnic conflict, separatism, and economic instability, as we have witnessed since their independence.

- The US-Azerbaijani relations have been a hot topic for regional analysts for a long time. How would you characterize Azerbaijanâ€™s importance for the US?

- The Republic of Azerbaijan is a significant partner for the USA for at least 3 major reasons: 1) Azerbaijan is a major oil producer for the US allies in Europe; 2) Azerbaijan is a Muslim country that continually works on its democracy, which is one of the major goals of the US for all its allies; and 3) Baku can serve as an example for modern Muslim states that aims to develop both economically and politically while they separates state and religious affairs.

- Another point in the US-Azerbaijani relations might be neighboring Iran, according to some analysts. How do you see the role and place of Azerbaijan and other post-soviet countries in the light of the nuclear threat from Iran?

- About Iranian nuclear energy plan, we should remember that Tehranâ€™s main goal is the survival of its regime. Iranian leaders witnessed the US invasion of Saddamâ€™s regime which did not have nuclear technology to deter a Western invasion. Tehran leaders also observed that the US and its allies have not invaded North Korea that has access to the nuclear technology. In fact, the Western states often try to negotiate with the unpopular North Korean regime. This reality has forced Iran to move as fast as it can to access such a technology to deter any possible invasions.

Moreover, Tehran has tried to stand as a protector of the weaker states and promote anti- hegemonic policies in the region. There is no major political benefit for Tehran to destroy the infrastructure of the neighboring countries, which would contribute to unfavorable regional climate among the masses against Iran. Moreover, I do not expect Tehran to attack the infrastructure of any neighboring countries in the near future, because that would provide a better excuse to the West to organize a military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

- Speaking of regional security, how possible do you see NATOâ€™s involvement in the South Caucasus? Can Azerbaijan and Georgia become members of the alliance with the unsettled conflicts in their territory?

- With the reactions of many EU states following the 2008 Russia-Georgia War, I do not see that Georgia and Azerbaijan become NATO members in the near future. However, I am sure that they can continue on the same defense partnership programs that they had began with NATO states short of becoming the official members of this alliance.