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Emmanuel Karagiannis: A gesture, even a symbolic one, from Yerevan is probably necessary before treaty ratification

18 November 2009 10:03 (UTC +04:00)

Profile. Emmanuel Karagiannis is Assistant Professor of post-Soviet Studies, University of Macedonia at Thessaloniki, Greece. He also teaches at the Joint War College of Hellenic Armed Forces, and the Hellenic National Defense College, Greece. His latest book, Energy and Security in the Caucasus, was also published by Routledge

- The US president Barak Obama just met with his Russian counterpart Dmitri Medvedev discussing cooperation in security sphere. How would you describe the current level of cooperation between two countries?

- There are increased indications that the U.S. and Russia have reached a gentlemenâ€™s agreement over NATO enlargement and the Iranian nuclear program. Bearing in mind that the Obama administration desperately needs Russiaâ€™s help in Iran, NATO enlargement in the former USSR is not a priority issue for Washington anymore. Also, there has been a policy shift in the Russian approach towards Tehran; the Kremlin is distancing itself from Ahmadinejadâ€™s nuclear ambitions.

- What would be the role of Azerbaijan in that cooperation?

- It is a question of time before the debate about the antimissile shield returns to the spotlight. Azerbaijan can become a very important link between Washington and Moscow since Baku enjoyed good relations with both sides, while the country is located at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East. Although it is too soon to tell, Putinâ€™s offer to use the Russian-operated radar can be discussed again.

- The other tension in US-Russian relations is situation in South Caucasus, particularly in Georgia. What are the risks of new tensions in these conflict areas?

- The Georgian-Russian relations will remain tense, but another war soon is unlikely because the two countries have too much to lose. Yet, skirmishes along the ceasefire line can happen from time to time.

-How would you estimate the current development in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process?

- It wonâ€™t be easy for the Armenian government to do concessions over Nagorno-Karabakh. The unconditional support of the Armenian Diaspora for the Karabakh Armenians is major obstacle for the settlement of the conflict in the near future. From the Armenian point of view, security guarantees must be part of a settlement deal.

- US doubts that without progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict solution, the Turkish-Armenian protocols will be ratified by the Turkish Parliament, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Philip Gordon said to press conference in Ankara on Friday. What do you think about this statement?

- A gesture, even a symbolic one, from Yerevan is probably necessary before treaty ratification. Ankara cannot afford a further deterioration in the Turkish-Azeri relations. Yet, Baku should be more pragmatic regarding relations with Turkey; Azeri and Turkish interests do not necessarily coincide in the Transcaucasus.