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American analyst: As momentum builds in the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, there will probably be some gradual movement in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue - EXCLUSIVE

11 November 2009 09:42 (UTC +04:00)

-What is the possibility of cooperation between Russia and US in the security sphere? What would be the role of Azerbaijan in that cooperation?

-Obviously this is a very broad question. Some security cooperation between the US and Russia already exists. Russia is allowing the US to transit equipment to the war zone in Afghanistan through Russian territory, for instance.

Russia would like more cooperation on issues it considers important, such as countering the drug trade coming out of Afghanistan and building links between the CSTO and NATO. The US also wants further cooperation, but mostly on the issues that matter to it, above all stopping Iran’s nuclear problem. The key question for both sides is whether they can find common ground on all but the most basic issues (START replacement, for instance).

What is Azerbaijan’s role in all of this - hard to say. Russia and the Europeans (backed by the US) are still maneuvering for access to gas from Azerbaijan. They also appear, quietly, for Baku to play a constructive role in the cautious rapprochement underway between Turkey and Armenia. So it seems to me there is no consistent answer; some cooperation, but also some competition.

-Do you think that Gabala Radio Location Station is still on the countries’ agenda in terms of security cooperation?

-Maybe in the long-run. For now though, the Obama Administration has defined its approach to missile defense, relying mainly on sea-based interceptors. Moscow is still pressing for some kind of joint missile defense project which could, I suppose, somehow include the Gabala site, but that is far in the future at this stage.

-It has been more than one year after the Georgia war, how would estimate the security situation in the region now? What are the risks of new tensions in conflict areas?

I would say the situation in the South Caucasus looks better than a year ago while the North Caucasus looks worse. Saakashvili has been weakened by the war and is in no position to repeat it, while the Russians are also more cautious as a result of the war’s fallout.

Meanwhile, the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement has not broken the ice on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue yet, but as momentum builds there will probably be some gradual movement. On the other hand, the North Caucasus is getting out of hand, with the spread of extremism in Ingushetia and Dagestan threatening regional stability. The economic crisis has not helped, since living standards are down and frustration seems higher.