AIR Center prepares report titled "THE 44-DAY KARABAKH WAR: Conclusions and Ramifications"

AIR Center prepares report titled  "THE 44-DAY KARABAKH WAR: Conclusions and Ramifications"
# 08 October 2021 12:25 (UTC +04:00)

Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR) has prepared report in English titled "THE 44-DAY KARABAKH WAR: Conclusions and Ramifications", AIR Center told APA.

"The 44-Day War that occurred between September 27 and November 10, 2020, fundamentally altered the regional security architecture in the South Caucasus region. The Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict dragged on for three decades without any success on the part of the international mediators in delivering any tangible solution.

This report has shed light on the conclusions and ramifications of the 44-Day War through covering it from different angles. The war itself was conditioned by many factors, the inability of the international mediators to facilitate a solution to the conflict and exert pressure on Armenia and the latter’s increasingly disruptive behavior being among the main reasons. The report has covered the 44-Day War, its impact on Armenia–diaspora relations, the economic implications of the war for the broader region, and its implications for international relations.

Having restored its territorial integrity, Azerbaijan rewrote the post-Soviet history of occupation and neglect of international rules and norms. Moreover, the war also demonstrated that the failure of diplomatic initiatives and negotiations warranted the use of force and a military solution to the conflict. The widespread myth that “there could be no military solution to the conflict” was shattered altogether. This slogan was repeated throughout the peace process mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs, and unfortunately this played into Armenia’s hands as it maintained its occupation of Azerbaijani territories and enjoyed impunity due to the lack of international pressure over its violation of international law.

Azerbaijan, however, never excluded the possibility of a military solution if peace efforts failed altogether. President Ilham Aliyev reiterated many times, in numerous interviews with the world’s media during the 44 days of conflict, that the inability of the international community to pressure Armenia to de-occupy Azerbaijani lands and the absence, across three decades, of a tangible solution through peaceful means to this persistent conflict and the increasingly militaristic posture of Armenia’s Prime Minster, Nikol Pashinyan, warranted this military solution.

From an international perspective, this report has identified three major implications of the 44-Day War for international relations. First, it laments that the failure of the peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan prior to the war, and the reluctance of the international community to pressure Armenia to abide by international law, represented another case for the reaffirmation of a Machiavellian vision of international relations. The disregard of international law by Armenian leaders, and the impunity granted to them by the lack of an international backlash, was a blow not only to the peace process between the two South Caucasian republics but also to the international legal order and trust in this.

The second implication of the war was of a more military nature. The rapid transformation of well-nigh all aspects of our lives over recent decades thanks to the technological revolutions proves not to have bypassed the military field. The 44-Day War, which was largely won by Azerbaijan thanks to its state-of-the-art weaponry, was a verification of this revolution. Although this revolution is read by some states as a challenge, there is a group of states that view it as an opportunity.

This, which the paper presented as the third implication of the latest Karabakh war, has the potential to empower smaller states more assertively to defend their national interests in confrontation with greater powers. Not only will this new situation improve the defensive capabilities of small states, but it will also amplify the costs for big states to militarily confront them and increasingly encourage them toward negotiated solutions.

This report therefore provided a critical discussion of and reached conclusions regarding the ramifications of the 44-Day War for the region and beyond," the report reads.