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Assad may have miscalculated by agreeing to Geneva talks, diplomats say

31 January 2014 23:38 (UTC +04:00)

Baku-APA. Syria's government may have madelegitimizing blunder by turning up at peace talks in Geneva since it had little to gain, little room for maneuver and may have started down a slippery slope by legitimizing its opponents, diplomats say, APA reports quoting Reuters.

But its chief sponsor, Russia, is keen to see a peace deal take shape, so it cannot leave.

Many experts thought the peace talks, which concluded their first round on Friday, would never happen, or would quickly break down, and the opposition almost failed to turn up because of the chaotic politics of deciding who would attend.

The government of President Bashar al-Assad came into the talks with a much greater sense of unity and confidence after some military gains, enabling its Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem to make a tub-thumping speech at the opening ceremony, in which he denigrated the opposition and their backers.

"Now the mask has fallen, and we can see the real face of what they want," he said. "We have come to protect the civil state, to put an end to barbarism."

But for the first time, the Geneva talks forced Syria's state media to give a platform to the opposition, while forcing Syria's government to face opposition journalists whom they regard as "terrorists".

"These people who are here in Geneva, who say they represent some of the opposition, they are only interested in creating some credibility for themselves," said Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Assad.

In that, they are succeeding, many observers say. Thrust onto the world stage, opposition spokesmen, coached by western media handlers, appeared every bit as dapper and eloquent as their government counterparts, fielding questions from state media calmly and courteously.

Having long decried the opposition as "terrorists", Moualem was widely seen as conferring status on the head of the opposition delegation, Ahmad al-Jarba, by refusing to attend negotiating sessions unless Jarba was also present.

Diplomats say the government delegation is boxed in by its own propaganda, and its statements are crafted for the audience in Damascus, above all Assad himself. That gives his negotiators no leeway to diverge from their core messages - about the need to fight terrorism, and that Assad's continued leadership of post-war Syria is not up for discussion.

"The problem with a regime like Syria is that every Assad functionary is used to trying to outbid the other. The result is that they have no narrative to tell the world except the empty nationalistic rhetoric," said a Middle Eastern diplomat.

However, despite the unified face they have presented at Geneva, the opposition remains fragile and still has little influence with activists and rebel fighters inside Syria. Diplomats say they are under pressure to show results quickly.

Al Qaeda-linked fighters are already implacably opposed to the negotiations and, without even modest results, other Islamist rebel groups and activists may turn decisively against the process.