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Arrests won’t deter Al Qaeda in Arabian peninsula

25 March 2010 17:37 (UTC +04:00)

Baku â€“ APA. Analysts are warning Saudi Arabia not to be overly triumphant after busting Al Qaeda cells planning a major attack, because the terrorist group will not be easily defeated, APA reports quoting â€œABC Newsâ€.
The Saudi government says it has broken up three separate Al Qaeda cells and foiled their plans for attacks on the kingdom’s oil installations.
Analysts say it is a major victory for the Saudi counter-terrorism authorities, which have been attempting to dismantle the cells since October last year.
Authorities say they seized arms, ammunition, computers, pre-paid telephone cards, cash and documents as part of the operation.
One cell had 101 people while the two others had six each and were unaware of each other’s existence.
But Macquarie University terrorism expert Clive Williams warns that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains well organised and should not be underestimated.
He says the Saudi government should be able to contain the fundamentalists but the Al Qaeda leadership is experienced and competent.
"You’ve got a very competent ideology and you’ve got a very competent military guy," Professor Williams said.
"The overall commander of the group, Nasser al-Wahayshi, was actually detained by the Yemenis and escaped from jail in Yemen, so he was part of a large group that escaped in 2006.
"It’s interesting that of the three leaders of AQAP, you’ve got two that have been detained in Yemen and escaped, and one who has come out of Guantanamo under the rehabilitation to a Saudi Arabia program.
"So all of those people are very experienced and well versed in Western methodology and so on."
Connections to Al Qaeda
Saudi interior ministry spokesman Mansur al-Turki says the groups are linked to Al Qaeda even though they did not know about each other.
"The network and the two cells were both targeting the oil facilities in the eastern province and they had plans that were about to be implemented," he said.
"It has been proven through initial investigations that there was correspondence between some arrested elements and the Al Qaeda organisation in Yemen."
The largest cell was uncovered after suspected militants - two of them dressed as women - tried to infiltrate Saudi Arabia in October last year.
Two were killed in a shootout at the border while a third was arrested.
Professor Williams says it is most likely Al Qaeda deliberately kept them isolated to avoid detection.
"I assume that what they [authorities] have done is, they probably tortured the third person or persuaded him in other ways to provide information which has led to the detection of this other group," he said.
Professor Williams says Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has a number of motivations, primarily widespread discontent with the Saudi royal family’s opulent lifestyle, which many Saudis believe is at odds with their pronouncements on Islam.
What is more, fundamentalist groups have long expressed discontent over the family’s decision to allow US troops in the kingdom.
"That was seen by very many fundamentalists as being a completely unacceptable thing to do - inviting infidels into Saudi Arabia, which is of course the protector of the holy places," he said.
"This simply was unacceptable. So that was another nail in the coffin of the royal family as far as the fundamentalists and the extremists were concerned."
Yemen causing headaches
Other analysts say that while Saudi Arabia’s wealth allows it to keep a lid on militants, the same cannot be said of Yemen, which has trouble controlling its territory.
A professor of government and politics at George Mason University in the US, Mark Katz, says terrorist groups are shifting from Saudi Arabia to its neighbour.
"Part of the reason why we’re facing this problem now with Yemen is that they were so successful in getting rid of so many Al Qaeda operatives from Saudi Arabia and they all fled to Yemen," he said.
"They’re basically using Yemen as a base to mount operations back in Saudi Arabia. And in many cases it’s easier because they’re not being cracked down on in Yemen the way they were in Saudi Arabia."
He says the Yemeni government has promised to crack down on Al Qaeda but it has other problems to worry about.
"I think the Yemeni government is just telling the Americans and Westerners what they want to hear: yes, yes, give us resources to fight Al Qaeda," he said.
"But in fact they’re really interested in these resources to fight their more immediate enemies, the Houthis and the southern secessionists.
"The Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula does not threaten to overthrow the Yemeni government the way the Houthis does, nor does it threaten to divide the country the way the southerners do.
"So I think that for the Yemeni government, Al Qaeda is the lesser of the threats."