“Armenia is turning into a geopolitical confrontation arena between the European Union and Russia. This can be clearly seen during the election campaign period. The Russian President spoke about the existence of pro-Russian political forces in Armenia and met with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Western countries, mainly the European Union, held a summit in Yerevan in May and made statements regarding support for Nikol Pashinyan. Direct assistance is being provided to the Armenian government to withstand Russia’s pressure, and even the operation of a second humanitarian mission in Armenia has been allowed. These processes give grounds to say that Armenia has turned into a geopolitical confrontation arena between the European Union and Russia.”
Political analyst Farhad Mammadov said this in a statement to APA.
The political analyst stated that the Armenian government is currently making statements about the end of the outpost idea: “It is being noted that Armenia will become more independent, and the current government is engaged in diversification in foreign policy. It cannot be said that the West, especially France, will completely replace Russia. Because this is not possible, at least in the next decade. Both in terms of the military base and the Customs Union. Therefore, Armenia’s close relations with the West, Europe, and mainly France are aimed at balancing Russia’s influence.”
Farhad Mammadov noted that Russia and the West are using Armenia for their interests in the region: “Here we can say with complete confidence that Russia is institutionally represented in Armenia in the South Caucasus. Both from a military and economic point of view, as well as in terms of internal political players, Russia has fulfilled at least its minimum plan in these parliamentary elections. It is already clear that the opposition in Armenia will change. Polls show that all the forces occupying second, third, and fourth place are pro-Russian. At least Russia has secured its minimum expectations in Armenia. The opposition that will be represented in parliament will again be pro-Russian. Whether they will come to power is another issue. That is already a maximum expectation. However, Russia has currently fulfilled its minimum plan. It has directly clashed with the West in Armenia, and I think that during the pre-election period Russia will take more aggressive steps in the economic and humanitarian spheres as well.”
According to the political analyst, France and the European Union have certain limitations in Armenia: “Because Russia’s military base already exists in Armenia. Armenia has a bilateral agreement with Russia on a strategic alliance dating back to 1997. At the same time, Armenia is still effectively a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. In such a situation, the European Union mission in Armenia, the second mission against hybrid attacks, and the planned future US company on border security will balance Russia to a certain extent. However, the most important events that will reduce Russia’s presence in Armenia in terms of security are peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia and Armenia-Türkiye normalization. After these events take place, the Armenian authorities will become freer and bolder. The goal of minimizing Russia’s military presence is exactly this.”
Farhad Mammadov emphasized that approaches to independence differ from one state to another: “We can say the same about the issue of foreign debt. For example, there has never been serious concern in Armenia about the country having a very large external debt. Because the state understands that it must borrow in order to survive, and that these debts may one day be forgiven or repaid in another form. The same approach exists regarding independence. Armenia faced an existential challenge to its existence, particularly after the 44-day war in 2020. Even now, if Pashinyan wins the elections, he is proposing a new Constitution. This new Constitution changes the old one and offers a new model to the Armenian people. This means that a completely different republic will be formed on the basis of the Constitution to be adopted in a new referendum, compared to the republic declared in 1991. This is the idea of ‘Real Armenia.’”
The political analyst added that Armenia is trying to implement this formula of independence by engaging with various forces, obtaining their security guarantees, and preserving its existence: “In essence, the current Armenian government’s ‘Real Armenia’ project is the formation of a different model of an independent state. In the past, Armenia handed over part of its sovereignty to Russia in exchange for support for its occupation policy. Now, Armenia has chosen a different path, and the Pashinyan government is offering its people a different project.”
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