I welcome the meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington at the invitation of US President Donald Trump. This is a major step forward towards ensuring long-term peace and stability in our region, Georgian military-political expert Vakhtang Maisaia said in an interview with APA.
He described the meeting as a historic event.
“In my opinion, the reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a restoration of the historical memory of 2018–2021. During those years, the three states of the regional security system acted together, jointly countering all external threats and challenges. I think that now the historical reality is repeating itself. This is a very timely and historically significant step in terms of establishing peace in the region,” he said.
“The Leproust format” effectively ceased its activities
Touching on the impact of the Washington meeting on the balance of power in the region, the Georgian expert noted that this meeting will qualitatively change the balance of power in the region: “I can already say that the ‘Leproust format,’ which was formed under the influence of the Russian Federation, has effectively ceased to operate. I believe that today it is possible to create a new format. This format can be conditionally described by the ‘2+1+1’ formula: here, the ‘2’ refers to the two regional actors of the South Caucasus — Azerbaijan and Armenia, the ‘+1’ is Türkiye as a regional power, and the other ‘+1’ is an international actor — the United States. In addition, there is the possibility that the European Union may also join this format as a second international actor. It is not yet clear how and under what conditions Georgia will join this process. It is possible that it could turn into an expanded ‘3+1+2’ format — time will tell. But at the current stage, what is clear is that the balance of power in the region will change both figuratively and literally. Russia, in turn, may attempt to create its own regional security system, which will depend on how future processes develop.”
It is time to bring to the agenda a new concept called the ‘Caucasus geostrada’
The Georgian expert believes that the normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan will further strengthen Georgia’s position in the region: “Georgia is an important communication route for both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Strategic transport and trade lines pass through it, which are vital for both countries. Azerbaijan exports its products via Georgia, while Armenia receives essential food, necessary goods, and other trade products through Georgia. For this reason, the Georgia factor will become even more significant in this context. I think this is a good opportunity for Georgia to join the peace process and to form a new model of cooperation involving all the countries of the region. It is already time to bring to the agenda a new concept called the ‘Caucasus geostrada.’ This is an idea put forward by the Georgian geopolitical school and envisions the Caucasus as an ‘island of peace’ where all civilizations and states coexist peacefully. I believe Georgia can present the ‘Caucasus geostrada’ concept to the representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan. This concept contains mechanisms that will strengthen and improve peaceful coexistence among all internal and external actors in the region.”
The Zangezur corridor will not be a rival for Georgia; it will strengthen Georgia’s communication capabilities
Answering a question about how the opening of the Zangezur corridor would affect Georgia’s existing transit and logistics capabilities, Vakhtang Maisaia said that if Georgia promptly accepts yesterday’s historic event in Washington and joins this format, the Zangezur corridor will not be a competitor for Georgia; on the contrary, it will further strengthen Georgia’s transport, energy, and communication capabilities: “This corridor will make an additional contribution to the formation of the South Caucasus region as a new international transit and communication hub. Moreover, given the current situation — with the war in Ukraine and the Iran–Israel confrontation effectively blocking the North and South transport corridors — this route is becoming even more important. In my opinion, it will become the main, central corridor. At this stage, the South Caucasus region could become a key transit center for implementing all major international projects. These include the Belt and Road Initiative, as well as the US’s ‘West–South’ economic project, which conditionally links the port of Antwerp to the port of Mumbai in India. US President Donald Trump wants the South Caucasus to become part of this economic route. I believe that both the Georgian corridor and the Zangezur corridor will complement each other and further enhance all the region’s potential.”
Reaction of the northern and southern neighbors
The Georgian expert believes that since this agreement runs counter to the interests of Russia and Iran, both countries will try to obstruct its implementation.
“This agreement contradicts the interests of Russia and Iran. Officials from both countries, as well as Iranian experts, have already openly expressed a negative position towards it. For Russia, in particular, this issue is more sensitive. In my opinion, both Russia and Iran will create obstacles to the implementation of this agreement, attempting to influence the process by generating additional threats and challenges. We must be ready for such developments. I believe that Russia will increase its pressure on Georgia and will try to accelerate the implementation of its own ‘North–South’ corridor project. In addition, Moscow may also use its leverage to persuade Georgia to agree to the opening of the Abkhazia railway line. The expected new challenges will be linked precisely to the clash of these positions. I am absolutely certain that Russia will take an openly hostile stance towards this project,” Vakhtang Maisaia concluded.
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