On April 18, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that unless real signals of a agreement on a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia are observed, Washington will withdraw from the negotiations.
This statement can also be seen as a signal that the U.S. mediation efforts have not yielded results. The main obstacle to resolving the conflict is the unwillingness of both sides to make mutual concessions. Russia does not back down from its demands regarding Crimea and the Donbas region, while Ukraine has no intention of giving up its territorial integrity.
The U.S. withdrawal from the process could lead to further disruption of this balance and may result in the complete collapse of the negotiations.
This statement by the Secretary of State is seen by analysts as a clear message indicating that Washington's diplomatic efforts have been exhausted, and it is also regarded as a pressure tool to bring Russia and Ukraine closer to the negotiation process.
Trump's diplomacy of pressure and isolation
American Political scientist Peter Tase told APA that, considering the futile and senseless outcome of the talks held in Paris on April 17 aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war, it would be the most logical and strategic step for President Donald Trump to withdraw from the mediation process aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine: "This decision is the most appropriate course of action and Moscow will be further isolated and face severe economic sanctions imposed by Washington. The world’s only reliable geopolitical factor that can bring peace to Ukraine is the Trump Administration, although Washington may withdraw from the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, the US President remains the sole statesman who holds the cards on two geographically related fronts: peace agreement with Russia and respect of territorial sovereignty of Ukraine; European Union cohesion and defense of its geopolitical and security interests. Washington will continue to be creative and find ways on how to reach a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow. The Trump White House has the potential on brokering an agreement for lasting peace in Ukraine; US will not take a pass for a long time, this is simply an effective negotiations’ maneuver that will further weaken Russia, expose EU nations’ abnormal disagreements among themselves."
Trump will take decisive steps against Putin
Stressing that Trump will take tough steps against Russian President Putin in the near future and impose additional economic sanctions on Russia, Peter Tase says that by prolonging the war, Russia is inflicting a severe blow on its national economy and labor market: "History has shown that President Trump is cautious, firm, equipped with unbridled courage and has the moral strength to face Putin and inflict further economic sanctions to Moscow. Russia does not realize that the lack of making meaningful progress toward peace will certainly have a negative impact in its national economy and labor force. The prolongation of the war, economic sanctions, and increased international pressure will seriously shrink the country’s domestic market and business environment, further slowing economic growth. These sanctions will not only squeeze Russia's currency market and trade relations but will also lead to additional problems such as unemployment and social tension. At the same time, the continuation of the war may threaten internal political stability in Russia. Under President Putin’s leadership, the country’s economic independence and the well-being of its population will be further jeopardized, as the war creates serious challenges in both the military and economic-social spheres. All these factors may force the Russian leadership to take steps toward peace, considering the international pressure."
The failure of European diplomacy
The American Political scientist also shared his thoughts on Europe's mediation potential in Ukraine-Russia relations:
" On the other hand EU Commission, France and Germany among others (with the exception of Italy which has become a primary target of Russia’s hybrid warfare), behave like Tirana’s “Free Ukraine” Avenue, where large flags of Ukraine decorate both sides of this segment in front of the Parliament’s headquarters; meanwhile the statue of Stalin - located as Soviet Union’s beach head in the Balkans (and at the helm of “Free Ukraine” Avenue) salutes visitors who appreciate Ukranian flags or visit the Mansion of Albanian National Assembly Speaker Elisa Spiropali. The charming manner of Albanian Government in scoffing at Ukraine and its Holodomor is a genuine illustration of how the European Union has abused with Ukraine’s geopolitical plight and steep challenges. Effective diplomacy requires two pillars: strong economy and abundant military power; these detrimental elements are solely embodied by the Trump Administration as we observe world politics today. President Trump will certainly enter in post Modern European history as the primary statesman who brought a lasting peace to Ukraine, and I am confident that in the next three years, we will witness this achievement shaped by a sitting US President. Ukraine must allow Russia to keep occupied territories and withdraw its aspirations for NATO membership. Any other proposal would prove unsustainable and encourage opening of new trenches of warfare within the NATO alliance."
"Putin is deceiving Trump..."
Ukrainian military expert Alexander Kovalenko, during an interview with APA, described the statement made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 18 as logical:
"In fact, this is quite a logical statement, as Donald Trump has only been deceived by Putin for the past three and a half months. And this is indeed the case. Russia is artificially prolonging the process by pretending to be open to negotiations, claiming to be ready for peace in words, but failing to demonstrate this in practice. Despite the fact that the White House has been taking a pro-Russian stance recently, several of Donald Trump’s advisors— not just Marco Rubio, but also Keith Kellogg—are extremely dissatisfied with the developments of the situation. The only exception is still Steve Witkoff, who remains optimistic about this matter, but this is more about his personal beliefs than a real, practical approach. The practical approach is evident in Keith Kellogg and Marco Rubio. This, of course, is a logical statement that shows the impossibility of an agreement with Russia. There have already been statements about the possibility of the U.S. withdrawing from bilateral talks or abandoning its role as a mediator. In fact, Ukraine has never approached the U.S. for these negotiations. These negotiations, as it can be said, have been directly pushed onto us by the White House - Donald Trump. If this decision is made in the White House, it would completely satisfy us. Because we cannot reach an agreement with someone who speaks in the language of ultimatums, refuses to return the occupied territories, and, moreover, still claims more Ukrainian territory that it has not even occupied. For example, Russia's demand for the entire Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions is simply ridiculous. Considering the situation on the front lines and Russia’s unsuccessful attempts at offensive operations, this does not make any sense. No one is preparing to give such "gifts" to Russia. That’s why the negotiations were already doomed to failure from the outset due to Russia’s position. The only question left was: who will slam this “door”? Will Ukraine refuse U.S. mediation? Will the U.S. pull out of the process? Or will the third option—Russia will slam that “door”? The most ideal scenario would be the third one. Because this would fundamentally change Donald Trump’s attitude towards Russia. But even now, the fact that Trump has slowly begun to understand that he has been deceived for more than three months will undoubtedly affect his thoughts. I believe that this is one of the most reasonable and realistic options for the future development of events."
Russia’s new offensive tactics while talking about peace
Mr Kovalenko noted that Russia has in no way demonstrated a willingness to support any peace initiatives put forward by the United States; on the contrary, while peace talks are ongoing, it has become more active on the front lines and has resorted to new tactics: "At present, Russia shows no signs of reducing its activity in the combat zone. On the contrary, it has increased the number of offensive operations and has begun to implement new tactics. In particular, Russian forces have launched mass assaults using motorcycles. In some cases, the use of up to a hundred or even more motorcycles has been observed, aiming to rapidly break through frontline defensive positions and reach Ukrainian lines. So far, this tactic has not produced significant results on a global scale for Russian troops. Nevertheless, it is not ruled out that the Russian command will attempt to expand such assaults despite heavy losses. Because, although not stated openly, launching attacks with motorcycles—vehicles that are fast and mobile but lack protection—essentially amounts to suicide for infantry without tank support. However, the Russian command has always shown indifference to the lives of its soldiers, and the level of casualties does not concern them. The problem is that they are trying to expand such assaults along the entire front line—specifically in the Orikhiv and Pokrovsk directions. Similar attempts have also been observed in other areas. For this reason, there has been no improvement in the situation in terms of reducing tension along the front line. The same applies to acts of terrorism against civilians. Once again, kamikaze drone attacks are being carried out on Ukraine’s rear areas, and civilian infrastructure is being targeted. In the Odesa region, especially in the Tatarbunary district, there have been combined attacks using both ballistic and cruise missiles. In short, Russia is in no way demonstrating a willingness to support any peacekeeping initiatives proposed by the United States," the Ukrainian expert said.
Rubio’s statement – The diplomatic challenges faced by the U.S. in the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Igor Korotchenko, the General Director of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies (Russia), believes that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement was made because Washington understands the complexity of the issue.
In his interview with APA, he noted that all of Trump's efforts aimed at achieving a more serious approach from Ukraine to the negotiation process are yielding no results: "Firstly, this statement shows that Washington understands the difficulties related to resolving the conflict. At the beginning, President Trump promised to stop the fighting and secure a ceasefire within one day, then within seven days, and later within a month. However, it has now been nearly 100 days since Trump began serving as the 47th President of the United States, and we can see that Washington's efforts — firstly, to secure more serious engagement from the European Union, and secondly, from Ukraine in the negotiation process — have not led to any success. Rubio's statement indicates that Washington, the White House, and the State Department are beginning to realize that the issue is not as simple as they initially thought. Secondly, the United States is apparently beginning to assess its actual mediation capabilities. Let’s speak frankly — there has been no progress, not even any practical outcomes, because the 30-day ceasefire proposal suggested by the U.S., particularly regarding refraining from attacks on energy infrastructure, has been completely ignored by the Kyiv regime. Nevertheless, Russia is strictly adhering to its commitments regarding not striking Ukraine’s energy facilities. In contrast, the Kyiv regime, in violation of its own commitments and promises made to Trump, continues to carry out large-scale attacks on Russian energy facilities using kamikaze drones. Under these circumstances, even though Russia is still observing its obligations within the framework of the moratorium, the Russian Armed Forces continue to increase pressure along the front line, advancing and liberating new settlements, breaking Ukrainian resistance, and defeating the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
"Zelenskyy humiliates Trump..."
Igor Korotchenko claims that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lacks conversation skills and that he has undermined Trump's influence: "Zelenskyy lacks conversation skills and will never have them. In fact, he humiliates Trump, undermining his influence as the President of the United States. After Zelenskyy insulted Trump at the White House, Europe, especially the European Union, Ursula von der Leyen, France, and Germany supported the Ukrainian leader in his political confrontation with the US. Therefore, the US currently has no effective means of influence. In any case, the means that have been used have not made Zelenskyy any more capable of engaging in negotiations."
The Russian political commentator believes that the United States still has several options to choose from.
"Washington still has several options at its disposal. First, this could be a complete ban on the sharing of any kind of intelligence data to Kyiv by U.S. intelligence services. Secondly, it could be the shutdown of the Starlink system. This would have serious consequences for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as without Starlink, Ukrainian troops will not be able to carry out their operations in the region as effectively as they have demonstrated in previous months. Without Starlink, the Ukrainian regime will face significant difficulties in managing its units and coordinating their activities. Lastly, the U.S. may disconnect Ukraine from the military segment of the GPS global navigation system, which would drastically reduce Ukraine’s ability to use Western-manufactured high-precision strike systems. And we must not forget that, according to official U.S. statements, large amounts of funds allocated to Zelenskyy in the form of U.S. military and financial aid have been embezzled. Trump has the option to launch a corruption investigation against both Zelenskyy and his close circle for causing damage to American taxpayers. Whether Trump will use these methods or not, we will see in the near future,” said Mr Korotchenko.
“If the U.S. withdraws from the negotiations, Russia must strike Ukraine”
Igor Korotchenko also touched upon the position of the European Union on the mentioned matter: "At present, it appears that Trump simply wants to resolve the Ukraine crisis through the European Union. Russia understands that the European Union is not capable of reaching agreements in negotiations. Therefore, if Trump and the United States withdraw from the talks, Russia must launch large-scale strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and the state’s military command centers in order to bring the Zelenskyy regime to its knees and force it to accept the ceasefire terms proposed by Russia. In this sense, of course, we understand that even though a negotiation process may be ongoing, in reality, it is extremely difficult to ensure the acceptance of the terms proposed by Russia — including the recognition of new territorial realities, that is, the regions now under Russian control and incorporated into its territory.”
As can be seen, contrary to the promises made by Trump, the situation on the Russia-Ukraine peace track is very complicated. Nevertheless, another optimistic statement he made just yesterday should not be overlooked. Trump declared that he hopes an agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine will be reached this week. This can also be considered Trump’s last hope in mediation. Will this hope be fulfilled? If not, will the U.S. withdraw from mediating between Russia and Ukraine? It seems that we will not have to wait long for these questions to be clarified.
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