Political

On the eve of the CIS Heads of State Summit held in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a one-on-one meeting to discuss the difficulties that had emerged around a number of issues between the two countries.

The detailed discussions during the Dushanbe meeting demonstrated that relations between Azerbaijan and Russia are moving toward a stable and constructive trajectory. A number of pressing issues, including recent challenges, were addressed in an atmosphere of openness and mutual trust. The candid dialogue between the two leaders showed that Baku and Moscow share a common position on strengthening bilateral ties, eliminating misunderstandings, and deepening future cooperation. This meeting is regarded as an important milestone in the full normalization of relations, both politically and practically.

AZAL plane crash main agenda item

The first issue raised during the meeting between the two leaders was the aviation accident involving an aircraft belonging to AZAL, which occurred in December last year. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke in detail about the causes of the crash.

He began the conversation with this sensitive topic, stating: “I would like to begin our meeting with the most sensitive topic – the aviation tragedy that occurred in our airspace. Even back then, in our first phone conversation, I not only apologized for the fact that the tragedy occurred in Russian skies, but also expressed my sincere condolences to the families of the victims. I would like to reiterate all of that and say that, as we agreed, we are certainly providing every possible assistance to the investigation. The investigation is nearing completion, and we can now talk about the general causes of this tragedy, this catastrophe. It is connected with a number of circumstances. The first is that a Ukrainian drone was in the sky. We were tracking three such drones that had crossed the Russian border on the night of the tragedy. The second reason is associated with some technical malfunction of the Russian air defense system itself. The two missiles that were fired did not directly hit the aircraft (had that happened, it would have crashed on the spot), but exploded, perhaps through self-destruction, a few meters away, around 10 meters. This is how damage was caused – primarily not by warhead fragments themselves but most likely by debris from the missiles. This explains why the pilot mistook the impact for a collision with a flock of birds, which he reported to Russian air traffic controllers – all of which is recorded in the so-called “black boxes”. He was advised, and this is clearly recorded in the black boxes, to land in Makhachkala, but he decided to return to his home airport and then to Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, the facts remain as they are. I have just outlined the causes of the tragedy. All of this is stated in the documents, following a thorough analysis of the technical characteristics of what happened and a second-by-second interpretation of the so-called “black box” recordings. We also discussed this topic afterwards. Of course, the Russian side will do everything that is required in such tragic situations in terms of compensation. A legal assessment will also be given to the actions of all officials."

President Aliyev’s Assessment of the AZAL Plane Crash

President Ilham Aliyev thanked his Russian counterpart for the detailed information provided on the tragedy and the personal attention given to the matter, expressing confidence in the objectivity of the investigation.

“First of all, I would like to express my gratitude to you for the meeting. As you mentioned, we had a brief conversation in Beijing, and just two days ago, I called you on your birthday. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate you once again and wish you, your family, and the friendly people of Russia all the best. I also extend my special thanks for the detailed information regarding the tragedy last December involving the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane. We were in immediate contact. As you recall, on that tragic day, I was flying to a meeting in St. Petersburg, and when I was informed about the incident, I called you directly from the plane, and we expressed our condolences. I also asked you to convey to our colleagues, who were also expected to participate in that event, that, for objective reasons, I would not be able to attend the informal CIS summit. I would also like to thank you for your personal oversight of this situation. Since we have repeatedly exchanged views and our teams have maintained regular contact, and given your personal attention to the investigation, we had no doubt that it would thoroughly and objectively establish all the circumstances. Therefore, I would like once again to express my gratitude that you deemed it important to address this issue during our meeting," said Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev.

Meeting signals positive shift

Political analyst Elxan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Research Center, positively assessed the bilateral meeting between the two leaders.

In an interview with APA, he noted that relations between Russia and Azerbaijan were normal and without serious problems until December, when the civilian plane was shot down. After the incident, relations deteriorated because the Russian authorities failed to take the necessary steps: “Additionally, there were incidents of violence against Azerbaijanis in Russian cities, and two of our compatriots were killed. I believe President Putin ultimately understood the importance of normalizing relations with Azerbaijan, which is why he took the initiative to meet Ilham Aliyev in Dushanbe. From his remarks, it is clear that if Ukrainian drones had not been present in Chechen airspace, Russian forces would not have fired on Azerbaijan’s civilian aircraft. According to him, the plane was hit by missile fragments. The Kremlin leader also stated that Russia is providing full support to the investigation and is open to a comprehensive examination of the tragedy. Addressing the Azerbaijani President, he said: ‘I apologize for the incident that occurred in Russian airspace. I extend my most sincere condolences to the families of the victims.’ He also emphasized that all Russian officials involved will be held legally accountable and that Russia will compensate those affected by this tragic event. This is effectively an acknowledgment of Russia’s responsibility for the downing of Azerbaijan’s civilian plane and the loss of our citizens. Had Putin made these statements in the days immediately following the incident, tensions would not have escalated. The normalization of relations will now depend on how he fulfills his promises regarding legal accountability for the Russian officials involved and the payment of compensation.”

Attempts to undermine relations failed

Certain circles - notably figures such as Simonyan, Solovyov, and Zatulin, known for their pro-Armenian positions - attempted to damage the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Russia and undermine mutual trust. Their goal was to erode confidence, cast a shadow over political dialogue, and create tension in the cooperative environment. However, these attempts failed due to the firm stance and clear political will demonstrated by the leadership of both Baku and Moscow.

One of Azerbaijan’s main concerns has been the systematic propaganda and manipulation of public opinion by anti-Azerbaijani and pro-Armenian groups operating in Russia. In this context, President Vladimir Putin’s public statements were of particular importance. His remarks clarified these provocative activities and clearly set out Moscow’s official position on bilateral relations. As a result, these destructive forces failed to achieve their objectives, and Azerbaijan–Russia relations were reaffirmed as being built on a solid political foundation.

Strategic dialogue gains momentum

Zaur Mammadov, head of the Baku Political Scientists Club, told APA that against the backdrop of the complex situation in the region, political dialogue between Azerbaijan and Russia was essential.

“In recent years, amid complex geopolitical developments, shifts in the security environment, and the emergence of new cooperation mechanisms, the restoration and continuation of high-level political dialogue between Azerbaijan and Russia has been of strategic importance. This meeting once again confirmed that a pragmatic approach based on mutual interests, long-term strategic vision, and mutual trust should guide relations between Baku and Moscow. Thanks to President Ilham Aliyev’s principled and forward-looking policy, Azerbaijan is pursuing an independent political course based on equality, mutual respect, and mutually beneficial cooperation with major powers. This policy plays a crucial role in maintaining regional stability, advancing peace initiatives, and strengthening multilateral partnerships. The intensification of Azerbaijan–Russia political dialogue marks the beginning of a new stage in bilateral relations and makes a tangible contribution to security and sustainable stability in the region," said Mr Mammadov.

According to him, the hopes of certain political circles and destructive forces in Russia to damage relations, undermine trust, and weaken political dialogue between the two countries have been completely dashed: “The leadership of Baku and Moscow has clearly demonstrated that strategic partnership cannot be shaken by temporary political pressure or manipulation attempts. On the contrary, cooperation based on mutual interests and the region’s prospects for stable development will continue in a consistent and purposeful manner, while political ties and economic cooperation will deepen further.”

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