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STRATFOR: The new government in Kyrgyzstan is loyal to Moscow, which means that the negotiations over the use of Manas military base have nothing to do with Bishkek

12 April 2010 08:21 (UTC +04:00)

Mr. Papic pointed out that, Kyrgyzstan is an impoverished economy that has very little to export. Its plentiful electricity generated by hydro-power is really the only viable export it has and even that is suffering as glaciers continue to melt, the expert said.

â€œThe question, therefore, is whether there is anything intrinsic that the new government can do to improve the lives of people in Kyrgyzstan? There is one thing, they could become more dependent on Russia and hope that the Kremlin continues to sustain them through the economic crisis (one of the biggest problems for Kyrgyzstan is that the recession has cut the flow of remittances from Russia) and help them build more hydropower for exportâ€ â€“ STRATFORâ€™s analyst said.

Speaking about current situation in the country, Mr. Papic mentioned that, it does not seem that Kyrgyzstan is moving into semi-authoritarianism. He believes that, it would appear that the new government is a mÃ©lange of opposition groups and even includes ethnic minority component.

â€œIf the new government sticks to its announcement that it would hold elections within 6 months after passing a new constitution, then Kyrgyzstan really will have become one of the most democratic Central Asian states. As for 2005, it is not the case that Bakiyev’s Tulip Revolution was undemocratic, it is just that he felt compelled to turn to nepotism to rule. It is now up to the new government to avoid his mistakes. However, the constraints of Kyrgyzstan’s geography, culture and history may make that difficult. Not impossible thoughâ€.

Answering the question about Manas military baseâ€™s future, the US analyst said: â€œCertainly there is a LOT of concern. However, it has to be understood that the change in government is just the first move in what should be long negotiations over the use of Manas. The new government is loyal to Moscow, which means that the negotiations have NOTHING to do with Bishkek. This is between Moscow and Washington.â€