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American analyst Eric McGlinchey:â€œBakiyev is certainly putting up more of a fight, so this could last longerâ€ - EXCLUSIVE

American analyst Eric McGlinchey:â€œBakiyev is certainly putting up more of a fight, so this could last longerâ€ - <font color=red>EXCLUSIVE</font>

09 April 2010 08:59 (UTC +04:00)

"Youâ€™re beginning to see a fair amount of politicians jumping ship, and it seems like itâ€™s approaching some kind of critical mass", Mr. McGlinchey stressed.

American analyst also added that there appears to be a "cascade effect" where individuals see enough people protesting that they feel comfortable joining the protests, leading to even more people joining the protests.

"This is the way that Kyrgyz politics is run", he said: "People generating power through street riots".

Despite the quick spread of the opposition protests, McGlinchey said he believes the possibility of the people getting the corruption-free government theyâ€™re demanding is "very slight".

"People asked the same thing in 2005, but thereâ€™s a lot of incentive to maintain what you have and the system is set up to solidify power", he said. "The system in Kyrgyzstan has made the authoritarian institutions very durable even if the leadership institutions are not".

Mr. McGlinchey said it would likely be some time before it became more clear as to who would take power if Bakiyevâ€™s administration does fall.

"These protests have spread much more quickly than in 2005", he said. "But Bakiyev seems more inclined to use heavy-handed methods than Akayev was. Heâ€™s certainly putting up more of a fight, so this could last longer".

Mr. McGlinchey added that it will all depend on how much control Bakiyev is able to maintain, but that "I canâ€™t imagine he has full control over either the military or the police".