APA-Economics reports that in its statement on main directions of money and financial stability for 2013 the CBA says that non-commodity goods and services exports will rise next year. These factors give us ground to expect surplus of GDP at 15-18% in the current account of the balance of payments in 2013. Consequently, all these will provide increase of country’s strategic currency reserves next year. the forecasted state of balance of payment will be a fundamental macroeconomic factor impacting the exchange rate of manat.
According to official forecasts, in 2013, economic growth of the country will make 5.3%, as well as non-oil sector is expected to stand at 11.7% Growth in non-oil sector will be mainly impacted by domestic demand next year.
Among these conditions, flexible exchange rate regime assumes great importance. Flexible exchange rate provides more effective monetary control over money supply and interest rates. Diversification of economy and export, further strengthening of fiscal sustainability, financial market development and conversion of interest rates on inflation as main impact tool assumes great importance for transition to this regime.
Next year, exchange rate policy will be directed to provision of balance between supply and demand in currency market and prevention significant hesitations of manta against USD. The state of manta against other currencies will depend on global processes. Parameters of exchange rate policy will be defined on the basis of situation of balance of payment, financial stability targets in banking sector, maintenance of competitiveness of non-oil export. In general, fundamental stability of manat’s exchange rate is one of the main factors of macroeconomic and financial stability.
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