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ING reveals Azerbaijan's inflation forecast

08 August 2025 10:03 (UTC +04:00)

Netherlands’ largest financial group ING revises inflation forecast for Azerbaijan, APA-Economics reports.

The inflation forecast for 2025 has been increased from 5.3% to 5.4%, and for 2026 from 5.1% to 5.3%. The bank's inflation expectation for 2027 is 8.9%.

Analysts increased their forecast for the fourth quarter of this year from 4.8% to 5.1%. For 2026, the first-quarter forecast was set at 4.9% (+0.3%), the second quarter at 5.1% (+0.2%), the third quarter at 5.3% (+0.1%), and the fourth quarter at 5.7%.

According to forecasts by the Ministry of Economy, average annual inflation in the country will be 5.1% this year and 4.3% next year. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s updated forecast from January 2025 projects inflation at 5.5% this year and 3.8% in 2026.

The United Nations expects inflation to reach 3.6% this year and 3.1% in 2026. The World Bank forecasts average annual inflation in Azerbaijan at 2.3% in 2025–2026.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), average annual inflation in Azerbaijan will be 5.7% in 2025 and annual inflation 5.2%. The IMF projects 4.5% in 2026, and 4% in 2027–2029.

International rating agencies S&P Global and Moody’s forecast average annual inflation at 4% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, while Fitch Ratings projects 5.3% for 2025 and 4.6% for 2026.