Domestic

Home page

Domestic

Ariel Cohen: Kosovoâ€™s independence may push Moscow toward Armenia in supporting Nagorno-Karabakh

25 February 2008 10:49 (UTC +04:00)

â€œRussia has made Kosovo a major issue in its relations with the West. President Vladimir Putin and other Russia policy makers, anxious to find points of confrontation with Europe and US, have demanded that the Kosovo issue would be decided in the UN Security Council, where Russia (and China) has a veto power. Russia may retaliate by recognizing independence of Abkhazia, which is part of Georgia, and of South Ossetia. It may also tilt toward Armenia in supporting Nagorno-Karabakh. If that will be the case, the tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia may drastically rise. The West should clarify to the authorities of Russia, Armenia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Karabakh, that declarations of independence will remain unrecognized, and that steps to the contrary will meet with counter- actions. For example, countries which recognize these enclaves may have their diplomatic representations reduced and economic aid reviewed. Russia’s position has three roots. First, it Russia views itself as a historic ally of Serbia. After all, it was because of this relationship the czarist Russia has declared war on Austro-Hungarian Empire in World War I, and ended up in collapse.
Secondly, Russia would like to be an "indispensable power" in deciding major issues in Europe and in the world. Therefore, any solution that does not meet with Moscow’s approval is to be opposed. Thirdly, there is the issue of international law. Moscow claims that only the UN Security Council should be allowed to recognize new states, as the UN Charter claims. Moreover, Russia, which is the host country to a number of secessionist and separatist movements, predominantly Muslim, does not want to see this successful precedent on its doorstep. Moscow does not want the criteria applied to Kosovo, to be applied to Chechnya and other Islamic lands in North Caucasus. Russia is suspicious that Kosovo independence is recognized based on intimidation and armed struggle of the Kosovars and on Europe’s fears that it must capitulate to their threats. Dozens of separatist movements in the world, from the Abkhaz to the Kurds, from Karen in Burma to Uyghurs in China, would be encouraged by the example of Kosovars. Albanians, Russia points out, already have one state which is a UN member. Now they will have two, and with the future success of Albanians in Macedonia, they may end up with three. Finally, both Belgrade and Moscow say that the West should support a democratic Serbia, not criminalized and militaristic Kosovars.
Repercussions over the Kosovo conflict will surely poison relations between Russia and the West for years to come,â€ Ariel Cohen said.