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Analysis: Next â€œRose Revolutionâ€ threat in Georgia?

01 October 2007 16:52 (UTC +04:00)

Irakli Okruashvili might be considered the most unexpected and interesting figure among those who came into power in Georgia after â€œRose Revolutionâ€. Okruashviliâ€™s appointment as the head of Armed Forces made the young politician the target of interest and criticism. This interest did not reduced even after he left Saakashviliâ€™s team. Okruashvili, who stirred up Georgiaâ€™s political life with his recent statements and arrest, stimulated several processes in the country, the first and the most important is his forming a new opposition against Saakashviliâ€™s government.

Initial assessment shows that the forces against Saakashviliâ€™s government, are people having various views and political inclinations. Main players of opposition at present are the former members of the team, who participated in the â€œRose Revolutionâ€ along with the president. Not all of the former supporters of the president expressed their position, some important figures stand by. The persons, who were removed from the government under various pretexts at different times, were not considered dangerous for the government, since there was no goal that could bring them together. It implies that movement â€œGeorgia without Saakashviliâ€ formed shortly after Irakli Okruashviliâ€™s arrest will establish a new and mighty opposition.

President Saakashvili was expected to accuse the opposition of joint business with Russia but founders of the movement â€œGeorgia without Saakashviliâ€ undermined presidentâ€™s accusations by saying that they do not want to see Igor Georgadze and Irina Sarishvili in their ranks. But ongoing events donâ€™t let predict if the government will be able to take control to the end or not. For now one thing is clear: â€œSaakashvili had his former ally arrest what caused an establishment of new opposition consisting of ex. Government members. This opposition has support in the regions, as well as financial support.

The only specified issue is that if authority-opposition confrontation in Georgia is transferred to streets from arena again, West will support Mikhail Saakashvili. West does not react to Presidentâ€™s personnel changes, noisy detentions occurred in the country and it means that Saakashviliâ€™s support limit is open yet in this front. Westâ€™s interests in the region, but not Saakashviliâ€™s democratic image, his intention to carry out democratic reforms in the country, foreign course forms this support. Georgia plays a great role in the implementation of energy projects in Caspian region and West is interested in the protection of stability in the country. West is not ruled out to interfere with the processes if Saakashviliâ€™s government faces any serious problem. US position will be the main factor which can confirm existence of the next â€œRose revolutionâ€ in Georgia at present. It is impossible to say anything beforehand as such position has not yet been demonstrated. /APA-Analytics/