CIS

Home page

CIS

International Crisis Group: Saakashvili is likely to lose international goodwill and some of the $5.4 billion of aid promised at the donors conference

27 November 2008 15:18 (UTC +04:00)

The briefing sent to APA by the International Crisis Group says that a failed war and a worsening economy present severe challenges to state authority in Georgia and make the need for serious reforms ever more urgent.
â€œAlthough President Mikhail Saakashviliâ€™s position is secure for the moment, his administration will be severely tested politically and economically in the winter and spring ahead. The opposition is asking pointed questions about whether the August war with Russia, and the ensuing economic crisis, could have been avoided. The global economic crisis and flight of foreign investment are likely to increase social discontent, but it remains unclear who will mobilise these grievances,â€ the briefing says.

â€œPresident Saakashvili promised a wave of reforms in Septemberâ€, says Lawrence Sheets, Crisis Groupâ€™s Caucasus Project Director. â€œBut if they arenâ€™t completed and expanded, he is likely to lose international goodwill and some of the $5.4 billion of aid promised at the donors conferenceâ€.

Meanwhile, the situation in and around South Ossetia and Abkhazia remains tense, with violent incidents and forced displacement continuing. Russia, which has not returned to its pre-7 August positions and is refusing access to monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in South Ossetia, has not fully implemented its commitments laid down in the ceasefire agreements negotiated by Presidents Sarkozy and Medvedev. In areas under its control, it has not done enough to create conditions to allow for the return of displaced persons and to prevent further displacement.

â€œUltimately Russia and the EU need to work closer together to ensure security and the return of displaced personsâ€, says Sabine Freizer, Crisis Groupâ€™s Europe Program Director. â€œThe talks that have begun in Geneva should be used to address these issues, but EU member states need to remain unified if they want to persuade Moscow to cooperate with a real international monitoring mechanism for the conflict zonesâ€.