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Analysts see oil price to fall to $30 soon

18 April 2016 13:41 (UTC +04:00)

“This is an extremely bearish scenario. Prices could touch $30 a barrel within days,” said Natixis analyst Abhishek Deshpande, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

Watch what happens Monday, as the extent of the oil-price fall will be telling for how deep the rout could get, Angus Nicholson, market analyst at IG, told clients in a note.

“The key technical level in play is US$38, a break through this level is likely to see a major pullback this week. If hopes of a Doha deal were the only thing driving oil, then a pullback to around the US$30 level seems quite likely,” said Nicholson.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, is sticking to a $35 to $45 range for Brent this quarter, with a similar view for U.S. WTI.

“I see the line in the sand on Brent crude as being $39. Below that, we could see a 10% extension to $35, driven by a further reduction in speculative longs,” Hansen said in emailed comments.

“On its own, we view this outcome as bearish for oil prices, given consensus expectations for a ‘soft guidance’ freeze at January production levels,” wrote a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie, in a note to clients on Monday.

But the analysts said a forced production cut in Kuwait over the weekend could be a reason for some hope. Thousands of oil workers went on strike to protest government plans to cut wages. The action slashed the country’s crude production by more than half on Sunday to just 1.1 million barrels a day